神预测：比尔-盖茨1999年做出的这15个预测都成真了
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早在1999年，微软创始人比尔-盖茨曾写下一本名为《未来时速-数字系统与商务新思维》的著作。盖茨在书中对未来做出了15个大胆的预言。这些预言在当时听起来不可思议，而如今却基本上都已实现或接近实现，比如：移动设备的普及、移动支付、互联网金融、物联网等。
No. 1: Price-comparison sites. Gates' prediction: "Automated price comparison services will be developed, allowing people to see prices across multiple websites, making it effortless to find the cheapest product for all industries." What we see now: You can easily search for a product on Google or Amazon and get different prices. Sites like NexTag, PriceGrabber, and even Microsoft's own Bing Shopping are built specifically to compare prices. No. 2: Mobile devices. Gates' prediction: "People will carry around small devices that allow them to constantly stay in touch and do electronic business from wherever they are. They will be able to check the news, see flights they have booked, get information from financial markets, and do just about anything else on these devices." What we see now: Smartphones, smartwatches, speakers like the Amazon Echo, and even headsets like the Microsoft HoloLens give users a way to have all of their information on hand at all times. No. 3: Instant payments and financing online, and better healthcare through the web. Gates' prediction: "People will pay their bills, take care of their finances, and communicate with their doctors over the internet." What we see now: Tech hasn't been able to change healthcare the way Uber changed transportation, but sites like ZocDoc aim to make finding a doctor and scheduling easier. You can also now borrow money online through sites like Lending Club and easily make payments through sites and apps like PayPal and Venmo. No. 4: Personal assistants and the internet of things. Gates' prediction: "'Personal companions' will be developed. They will connect and sync all your devices in a smart way, whether they are at home or in the office, and allow them to exchange data. The device will check your email or notifications, and present the information that you need. When you go to the store, you can tell it what recipes you want to prepare, and it will generate a list of ingredients that you need to pick up." What we see now: Virtual voice assistants like Google Assistant and Amazon Alexa are moving in this direction, offering a personalized way to get your information just by asking for it out loud. Meanwhile, smart devices like Nest collect data on your daily routines and automatically adjust your house's temperature. No. 5: Online home-monitoring. Gates' prediction: "Constant video feeds of your house will become common, which inform you when somebody visits while you are not home." What we see now: This is increasingly common — companies like Canary, Ring, Netgear, and Google cousin company Nest all make cameras that let you view the feed from your phone, and that send a push alert when there's a human in view. No. 6: Social media. Gates' prediction: "Private websites for your friends and family will be common, allowing you to chat and plan for events." What we see now: "Private websites" didn't quite happen. But Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Snapchat, Line, Slack, and plenty of other apps give you an easy way to keep in contact with groups large and small. No. 7: Automated promotional offers. Gates' prediction: "Software that knows when you've booked a trip and uses that information to suggest activities at the local destination. It suggests activities, discounts, offers, and cheaper prices for all the things that you want to take part in." What we see now: Travel sites like Expedia and Kayak offer deals based on a user's past purchase data. Google and Facebook can offer promotional ads based on the user's location and interests. Airbnb, which lets people stay in homes rather than hotels, offers specialized trips at destinations so you can live like a local, too. No. 8: Live sports discussion sites. Gates' prediction: "While watching a sports competition on television, services will allow you to discuss what is going on live, and enter a contest where you vote on who you think will win." What we see now: A bunch of social media sites allow this, with Twitter being the clear leader — it even experimented with streaming some games. You can also leave comments in real time on sports sites like ESPN. No. 9: Smart advertising. Gates' prediction: "Devices will have smart advertising. They will know your purchasing trends, and will display advertisements that are tailored toward your preferences." What we see now: Just look at the ads you see on Facebook or Google — most online advertising services have this feature, where advertisers can target users based on their click history, interests, and purchasing patterns. No. 10: Links to sites during live TV. Gates' prediction: "Television broadcast will include links to relevant websites and content that complement what you are watching." What we see now: Almost every commercial these days has a callout asking the viewer to go to a website, follow the business on Twitter, or a scan a QR code to add it on Snapchat. No. 11: Online discussion boards. Gates' prediction: "Residents of cities and countries will be able to have internet-based discussions concerning issues that affect them, such as local politics, city planning, or safety." What we see now: Most news sites have comment sections where people can have live discussions, and many sites have forums where people can ask and respond to certain questions. No. 12: Interest-based online sites. Gates' prediction: "Online communities will not be influenced by your location, but rather, your interest." What we see now: All kinds of news sites and online communities focus on single topics. Many news sites have expanded to include separate verticals, offering more in-depth coverage on a given topic. Reddit is a great example of a website that's divided into subgroups, or "subreddits," that focus on interests rather than who you know or where you are. No. 13: Project-management software. Gates' prediction: "Project managers looking to put a team together will be able to go online, describe the project, and receive recommendations for available people who would fit their requirements." What we see now: Tons of workflow software in the enterprise space, including Slack, Asana, and Trello, are revolutionizing how you recruit, form teams, and assign work to others. No. 14: Online recruiting. Gates' prediction: "Similarly, people looking for work will be able to find employment opportunities online by declaring their interest, needs, and specialized skills." What we see now: Sites like LinkedIn allow users to upload résumés and find jobs based on interests and needs, and recruiters can search based on specialized skills. No. 15: Business community software. Gates' prediction: "Companies will be able to bid on jobs, whether they are looking for a construction project, a movie production, or an advertising campaign. This will be efficient for both big companies that want to outsource work that they don't usually face, businesses looking for new clients, and corporations that don't have a go-to provider for the said service." What we see now: There's not quite a single marketplace for companies to go find work, as a whole. However, a bunch of so-called "gig economy" services, like Upwork and Fiverr, allow freelancers and small businesses to find clients. Meanwhile, Craigslist remains as a favorite place for small businesses to connect with one another and find jobs. |
