人民币贬值能缓解贸易战冲击,但也有代价

China has a simple weapon it can use to try and foil President Trump’s tariffs.
中国有一个简单的武器，可用来尝试挫败特朗普总统的关税。

Will it work?
能起作用吗？

The value of China’s currency, the renminbi, has fallen over 7 percent against the dollar since mid-April, an unusually large move. A lower renminbi makes China’s exports cheaper to foreign buyers, which is particularly helpful right now when Mr. Trump’s tariffs are making many Chinese goods more expensive in the United States market. And since China’s government manages the value of its currency, the decline certainly has its blessing.
自4月中旬以来，人民币兑美元的汇率已下跌了逾7%，这是一个异常大的变化。人民币贬值使中国的出口商品对外国买家来说更便宜，在特朗普的关税让许多中国商品在美国市场上变得更贵的时候，这一点尤其有帮助。而且，由于中国政府是人民币汇率的管理者，人民币贬值当然是得到政府批准的。

Mr. Trump in a tweet last week said the weakness of the renminbi was eroding the United States’ competitive edge.
特朗普上周发推说，人民币走弱正在侵蚀美国的竞争优势。

The Chinese authorities have said they are not deliberately weakening the value of the renminbi to gain an advantage in the trade conflict. And some of the recent decline in the currency may have been driven by economic factors unrelated to trade.
中国当局已表示，他们并不是在故意压低人民币的价值，以在贸易冲突中获得优势。而且，导致人民币最近贬值的部分原因可能来自与贸易无关的其他经济因素。

But the renminbi does not trade freely. Its price must each day rise or fall within a strict range set by the central bank. That range has been steadily lowered.
但是，人民币不能自由交易。其交易价只能在央行每日设定的严格范围内上下波动。人民币的指导价一直在稳步降低。

The recent slide, which took the renminbi back to last year’s levels, began as the trade-war rhetoric was heating up.
人民币最近的下跌使其回到了去年的水平，下跌是在贸易战言论不断升温时开始的。

While a weakening currency can soften economic blows, it also comes with costs.
虽然货币走弱可以缓解经济冲击，但也有代价。

When China devalued its currency three years ago, fear spread through the country’s economy and markets around the world.
三年前，中国让人民币贬值时，人们的恐惧曾影响了中国经济，还波及了全球各地的市场。

But for China, letting the renminbi slide may have advantages over other responses to American tariffs. Since China exports far more to the United States than it imports, it cannot respond with tariffs on anywhere near the same amount of American products.
但对中国来说，用人民币贬值来应对美国的关税，可能比其他方法更具优势。由于中国对美国的出口远远超过从美国的进口，中国能征收关税的美国产品价值，不可能接近美国能对中国征收关税的产品价值。

Devaluations carry a legion of risks, though.
然而，货币贬值带来大量的风险。

First, it’s not clear the extent to which China might need to let its currency weaken. The decline of the past three months has potentially benefited all of China’s exports to the United States, which last year totaled over $500 billion, and partially offset the impact of the tariffs imposed so far. The United States’ first tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods, which took effect this month, are set at 25 percent.
首先，人们尚不清楚中国可能需要在多大程度上让人民币贬值。过去三个月的贬值可能已让所有的中国对美出口受益，去年中国对美国的出口总额超过5000亿美元，贬值也可能部分抵消了加征关税到目前为止所带来的影响。美国从本月开始对价值340亿美元的首批中国商品加征25%的关税。

Other tariffs proposed by Mr. Trump, on a larger value of goods, would be set much lower at 10 percent. But Chinese policymakers would likely want to avoid a situation in which investors and others believed the level of the currency was directly affected by developments in the trade war.
特朗普已提出要对更大范围的中国产品加征关税，但加征的幅度较低，只有10%。但中国的政策制定者们可能会希望避免一种情况，那就是让投资者和其他人认为，汇率水平直接受贸易战的影响。

And a big slide could hurt China.
而且，货币大幅贬值可能会给中国带来伤害。

A nose-dive in the renminbi would come at a difficult time for the Chinese economy. A dizzying rise in borrowing has driven a considerable portion of China’s growth. The government, fearing that some borrowers will have problems repaying the debt, has tried to restrain borrowing. But such limits can also slow the economy, which is why some constraints were recently loosened.
如果人民币大幅贬值，会发生在中国经济面临艰难的时刻。中国经济增长的相当一部分是靠令人目眩的借贷增长。政府担心一些借款者将在债务偿还上出问题，因此试图限制借贷。但这种限制也会减缓经济增长，这就是为什么政府最近放松了一些限制。

Fears about China’s debts were on the rise in 2015 when the government carried out a surprise devaluation.
2015年，当人们对中国债务的担忧有所增长时，中国政府出人意料地开始让货币贬值。

Individuals and companies in China dumped renminbi and bought other currencies, to protect their wealth against further decreases in the value of the Chinese currency. The selling, known as capital flight, suggested that the Chinese had little faith in their own economy, and raised questions about the Chinese central bank’s handling of the devaluation. The other big fear at the time was that the prices of Chinese goods in other countries would fall, forcing producers there to also cut their prices and hurt the wider economy in the process.
为保护自己的财富不受人民币进一步贬值的影响，中国的个人和企业纷纷抛售人民币，买入其他货币。这种被称为资本外逃的抛售表明，中国人对本国经济缺乏信心，并对中国央行让人民币贬值的做法有疑问。当时的另一个重大担忧是，中国产品在其他国家会降价，迫使其他国家的生产商也纷纷降价，从而在这个过程中给更广泛的经济带来损害。

China imposed new “capital controls” that stanched the capital flight, and a pick up in the global economy and prices alleviated the concern about cheaper Chinese goods. The added controls and the fact that the global economy is in somewhat better health may allow China to do another devaluation without creating as many jitters. But it would still be a hard task to carry out, in part because individuals and firms find ways around the rules.
中国采取了新的“资本管制”措施，遏制了资本外逃，全球经济和价格的回升缓解了人们对中国商品变得更便宜的担忧。现有的资本管制措施，以及全球经济状况正在好转的事实，也许会允许中国再次让人民币贬值，而不至于引发太多的不安情绪。但这仍将是一项艰巨的任务，部分原因是个人和公司能找到绕过管制的方法。

“Carrying out a controlled depreciation is one of the most difficult maneuvers a central bank can pull off,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. “China, through using capital controls and its reserves, could pull it off again, but there is a risk that a weaker currency is taken as evidence that China can’t assure financial stability.”
“在央行能够实施的策略中，货币的受控贬值是最为棘手的一项，”美国外交关系委员会高级研究员布拉德·塞策(Brad Setser)说。“中国靠资本管制和外汇储备也许能再次成功做到，但一种风险是，人们会把人民币走弱视为中国不能保障金融稳定的证据。”

And the factors that perhaps slowed the selling of the renminbi no longer exist. Robin Brooks, the chief economist at the Institute of International Finance, notes that the dollar weakened substantially in 2017, which, he says, helped stabilize the value of the renminbi.
而且，可能缓解人民币抛售的因素已不复存在。国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)首席经济学家罗宾·布鲁克斯(Robin Brooks)指出，美元曾在2017年大幅走弱，这对稳定人民币的价值有所帮助。

“If the dollar picks up again, it is an open question how well capital account restrictions will work to stem the potential capital flight,” Mr. Brooks wrote in an email.
“如果美元重新升值，限制资本账户的做法对有效地遏制潜在的资本外逃会有多大作用，是一个尚无答案的问题，”布鲁克斯在一封电子邮件中写道。