经济学家：中国的经济复苏将惠及东盟

经济学家指出，尽管新冠肺炎疫情仍有不确定性，但中国的经济复苏将惠及东盟成员国。商务部数据显示，在2020年第一季度，东盟取代欧盟成为中国最大的贸易伙伴。 

China's economic recovery is set to benefit member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), even amid continuing uncertainty over COVID-19, a leading Asian economist said.

亚洲一位知名经济学家说，尽管新冠肺炎疫情仍存在不确定性，但中国的经济复苏将惠及东南亚国家联盟（简称东盟）成员国。

"China is an important economic partner of ASEAN, and at a time when the developed economies are suffering from a sharp downturn, China is the only large source of demand that could still be growing," said Manu Bhaskaran, founding director and CEO of Centennial Asia Advisors, an economic consultancy in Singapore.

新加坡经济咨询机构百年亚洲咨询公司的创始董事兼首席执行官马努·巴斯卡兰说：“中国是东盟重要的经济伙伴。在发达经济体经济遭受重创之际，中国是唯一的巨大需求来源，且需求仍在增长。”

China has been ASEAN's largest trading partner for 10 years, according to the Ministry of Commerce. Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2020, ASEAN replaced the European Union as China's largest trading partner, accounting for 15.1 percent of the nation's global trade volume during the period, according to the General Administration of Customs.

根据中国商务部的数据，中国10年来一直是东盟最大的贸易伙伴。与此同时，根据海关总署的数据，在2020年第一季度，东盟取代欧盟成为中国最大的贸易伙伴，占中国同期全球贸易额的15.1%。

Noting the easing of restrictions and the stimulus programs to boost the domestic market, Bhaskaran told China Daily that the Chinese economy will be able to stabilize in the second quarter and then enjoy "a vigorous recovery".

巴斯卡兰在接受《中国日报》采访时指出，放宽限制措施和刺激计划提振了国内市场，中国经济将能够在第二季度企稳，然后迎来“强劲复苏”。

"So far, the data seem to suggest that Chinese consumers are resilient and are stepping up spending, supporting demand," he said.

他说：“目前的数据表明，中国的消费者具有很大韧性，他们正在扩大消费，支撑需求。”

Despite the biggest GDP contraction in decades－the economy shrank 6.8 percent year-on-year in the first quarter－China's consumer market has shown signs of accelerated recovery. During the five-day May Day holiday, online sales of physical commodities witnessed a 36.3 percent year-on-year surge, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

尽管中国的国内生产总值出现了几十年来最大的下降（今年一季度，我国GDP同比下降6.8%），中国的消费市场已经显示出加速复苏的迹象。根据商务部的数据，在五天的“五一”假期期间，实体商品的网上销售额同比激增36.3%。

With economic development a main topic at this year's two sessions, Bhaskaran sees some key issues that need to be addressed. "The employment situation remains tenuous and the sharp decline in global demand also points to continuing downside risks to the Chinese economy," he said.

随着经济发展成为今年两会的主要议题，巴斯卡兰看到了一些需要解决的关键问题。他说：“就业形势依然严峻，全球需求大幅下降也表明，中国经济面临持续下行风险。”

tenuous [ˈtenjuəs]：adj.脆弱的

China will prioritize stabilizing employment and ensuring people's livelihoods this year, aiming to create more than 9 million urban jobs, according to the Government Work Report delivered by Premier Li Keqiang on Friday.

5月22日，国务院总理李克强在政府工作报告中指出，今年要优先稳就业保民生，努力实现城镇新增就业900万人以上。

More supply-side reforms will also help the Chinese economy sustain a recovery with good foundations, said Bhaskaran.

巴斯卡兰表示，更多的供给侧改革也将有助于中国经济在良好基础上保持复苏态势。

As China undergoes a recovery, it can affect ASEAN economies through many channels, said Bhaskaran.

巴斯卡兰说，随着中国经济复苏，它可以通过许多渠道影响东盟经济体。

For instance, the rise of demand in China could spill over into rising demand for ASEAN's exports of commodities and manufactured goods, while commodity prices and business confidence could also be boosted, said Bhaskaran, noting prices for commodities such as iron ore, coal and copper are already rising in line with China's recovery.

比如，中国需求的增长或将使得东盟大宗商品和制成品出口需求上升。同时，大宗商品价格和商业信心也可能得到提振。他指出，铁矿石、煤和铜等大宗商品价格已随中国经济复苏而增长。

As for the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, Bhaskaran said the pandemic has not had any impact on participating countries' desire to finalize the agreement according to the timeline.

至于拟议的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》，巴斯卡兰说，疫情没有对参与国根据时间表最终达成协议的愿望产生任何影响。

The RCEP is a proposed free trade agreement between ASEAN and its six FTA partners: China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand. In March, the Ministry of Commerce said China will continue to advance the signing of the agreement at the end of 2020 as scheduled.

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》是东盟与中国、日本、韩国、印度、澳大利亚和新西兰六个自贸伙伴之间拟议的自由贸易协定。今年3月，中国商务部表示，中国将继续按计划推进2020年底签署该协议。

In addition, Chinese investment either through private channels or via the Belt and Road Initiative could also contribute to investment in ASEAN, Bhaskaran said.

此外，巴斯卡兰说，中国通过民间渠道或“一带一路”倡议进行的投资也可以促进对东盟的投资。

China is one of ASEAN's most important sources of foreign direct investment. In 2018, FDI flows from China to ASEAN reached $10.2 billion, or 6.6 percent of ASEAN's total FDI, according to Xinhua News Agency, citing a statement by economic ministers from ASEAN and China.

中国是东盟最重要的外国直接投资（FDI）来源国之一。新华社援引东盟和中国经济部长的一份声明称，2018年，中国对东盟的FDI达到102亿美元（约合人民币727亿元），占东盟FDI总额的6.6%。

However, Bhaskaran said tourism, a key area for ASEAN-China exchanges, is unlikely to reemerge as a growth driver for some time to come, due to the pandemic.

不过，巴斯卡兰表示，由于新冠肺炎疫情，作为东盟与中国交流的一个关键领域，旅游业在未来一段时间内不太可能重新成为增长动力。

Given the pandemic's continuing impact, Bhaskaran said relaxation of restrictions on cross-border travel, especially for tourism, remains uncertain. And the travel restrictions, which he expects to last till next year, will also make travel less enjoyable, he added.

巴斯卡兰说，鉴于疫情的持续影响，放松对跨境旅行的限制，特别是对旅游的限制，仍然是不确定的。他预计旅行限制将持续到明年，这也会让旅行变得不那么愉快。