美专家谈电脑千年难题带来的好消息与坏消息
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THE GOOD NEWS AND THE BAD
(2) We were wrong: The Year 2000 Problem (or Y2K) was more serious than we thought. Very soon what seemed like a minor technical problem to us-and to most other people at the time-had set off a furor『喧闹；狂怒』and even created a new industry for consultants『顾问』and programmers. (3) Experts say that it's not exactly clear what problems non-compliant『不会发牢骚的；缄默的』computers will create over the next few years. They may make lots of mistakes. Humans may catch many of the computers' mistakes, but most humans are too busy. That's why we have computers keeping track 『轨迹；轨道』of things and telling us what to do, like taking expired『失效的』foods and medicines off the shelf. (4) The Year 2000 Problem affects not only computers (mainframes『大型电脑』, minis『便携式的』, and micros), but the myriad『无数；大量』of microchips embedded『把嵌进；埋进』in many of our products, including airplanes, cars, microwave ovens『微波炉』, etc, points out Y2K authority 『专家；权威人士』John Whitehouse, president of Change Wise, Inc, in Jacksonville, Florida. Furthermore, as he notes in his recent audiobook『有声读物』The Year 2000 Is Coming: What Do I Do? the year 2000 is a leap year, a circumstance『情况；事实』that also will have at least some consequences『结果；后果』: Banks, for example, would fail to calculate『计算；测算』one day's worth of interest (February 29), which is significant when you are dealing with billions of collars. (5) Even if you don't think you have a big problem with your own computers, of if you solve your own Y2K problems, you will still have to deal with countless『无数的；数不清的』other individuals, businesses, agencies, and governments who may not have solved the problem in their systems. Computers, businesses, and governments are highly interconnected『互相连接；互相联系』today: A problem anywhere has the potential『可能性』for global consequences, and there may be many, many problems emerging『出现』as 2000 arrives. (6)Still, there is a potential bright side: (7) "For those who come to understand and accept the issues, for those who take decisive『坚决的；果断的』 action, this can be the opportunity of a lifetime," says Whitehouse. (8) A disaster almost always presents profitable『有利可图的』opportunities. The hundreds of billions of dollars spent on fixing the Y2K Problem will wind up『结束』in somebody's pocket. Expected Y2K winners include: (9) Programmers and consultants. Anyone with the technical skills to solve the problem is now in high demand. Y2K guru『导师』Peter de Jager identifies『鉴定；确定』a wide variety of consultants ready to provide services, including planning consultants for tools assessment『估价；估计』, testing consultants, contract service consultants to estimate the costs and plan and implement『执行；履行』the code redesign『重新设计』, legal consultants, and recovery consultants. (10) Information providers, including publishers and Web site developers. The Wall Street Journal, for example, recently sold eight pages of advertising in a special section devoted to companies offering "Year 200 Solutions". (11) Investors. Wherever new businesses bloom, investors are sure to see prospects for fast growth. Unfortunately, it's already late in the game to invest in Y2K companies: You'd be "buying high," and it's always risky to chase headlines for ideas on short-term speculation『投机』. (12) Lawyers and litigators『诉讼人』. Individuals and businesses stand to lose a log of money and time because of the Y2K Problem; therefore, they will want to sue『控告；诉讼』anybody they consider responsible for creating the problem. (13) To get started in solving your Y2K problems, John Whitehouse of Change Wise recommends building a "systems inventory『目录』." Analyze your computer dependency『依靠；依赖』-what do you use to get through the day, what outside systems do you depend on? What alternative『替代的；供选择的』sources of goods and services are there? (15) Individuals and family heads should check out『检查』 personal items that contain computer chips. Examples include heating and air conditioning systems, home-security『家庭保安』systems, telephone-answering machines, TVs, VCRs, cell phones, cars. And of course, your home PC: The operating system itself may not work. (16) Now test the devices. Enter 2000 in your VCR, or change the system date on your PC (after backing up the data). Send letters to manufacturers to see if their systems are Y2K compliant. Record on inventories『清单；目录』where you still have risks, and develop a course of action, such as identifying alternative providers. (17) You should also check software such as Access 95, Excel, personal schedulers『安排程序』, financial programs like Quicken of Money, communications software, etc. And remember that you could experience problems with outside services you use: the phone company, utilities, supermarkets, banks, gas stations, airports. (19) If you are an investor, your money is in places you can't control, so you should inventory『编制目录』all your assets (equity, debt, and fixed tangible『固定资产』). Check with the companies to find out their Y2K status『情形；状态』and record the results. (20) One worry is that there may be runs on banks when people fear the Y2K impacts. Whitehouse goes so far as to suggest that investors begin hedging『套购保值』with fixed tangible assets: "Buy some gold and silver." (21) Businesses should set up an organizational task force to address『对付』the issue, including managers from each area of the enterprise. "Problem ownership" should lie with the chief financial officer because of the many financial and legal implications『牵连；涉及』. The task force should consider questions like cost, impacts on daily activities, competitors『竞争者』' actions, opportunities, effects on stock prices, etc. (22) The lesson of the Year 2000 Problem is obvious: Most of the problems we face in the present are the result of someone (OR everyone) in the past failing to think about the future. Y2K is a problem basically because mainframe『大型的』computer programmers paid little attention to the long-term future. (23) We can smugly『沾沾自喜地；自鸣得意地』congratulate ourselves for being smarter than our technologies, but meanwhile, technology is biting us back. 【疯狂翻译练习】 |
