美国通胀升至近一年最高水平
The Federal Reserve’s favoured inflation measure picked up to its strongest level in almost a year in February, supporting expectations that a solid economy and tight labour market are pushing price growth towards the central bank’s target. The personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rose 1.6 per cent on the year, the largest increase since April 2017, according to a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. While that is well shy of the Fed’s 2 per cent target, the three-month annualised rate of gain is 2.8 per cent, said Michael Feroli of JPMorgan Chase. He predicted that year-on-year figures will continue to push higher in the coming months, taking inflation close to the Fed’s goal. Core inflation has not exceeded 2 per cent since April 2012, complicating the picture for a central bank that has been gradually reducing its stimulus programmes. This year the Fed has been putting less weight on sluggish inflation numbers as the buoyant labour market bolsters confidence that it is on track to hit its target. The central bank’s median forecast this month suggested core price growth will modestly overshoot the 2 per cent target next year, supporting arguments for further increases in short-term interest rates. Among the factors lifting price growth in February was higher healthcare prices — a notable development given the role healthcare has played in recent years holding overall inflation back. “The overshoot [relative to what would be forecast based on consumer price index data] largely reflects a second straight jump in the hospital services component, which accounts for 10.4 per cent of the index,” Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said. “After years of margin compression, hospitals appear to be trying to exert pricing power”. Personal income and personal spending were up on the month by 0.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent respectively. Economists are expecting a slight easing of economic growth in the first quarter compared with the revised 2.9 per cent annual rate reported for the fourth quarter of 2017. According to the Atlanta Fed, first-quarter growth is on track to be around 2.4 per cent. That would still represent above-trend growth, however, and tax cuts and public spending increases are expected to add fuel to the recovery in the coming months. The Fed raised rates last week and is predicting another two increases this year. Some economists expect policymakers to lift the outlook to three further rises. A gauge of consumer sentiment rose to its highest level since 2004 in March, according to the University of Michigan, highlighting the bright outlook among US households. |