经合组织报告：中国将是2020年G20唯一实现正增长的国家

当地时间9月16日，经合组织发布了《经济展望中期报告》，将全球2020年GDP变动预期从下滑6%上调至下滑4.5%，2021年经济增长预期同步上调至5%。此外，报告指出，按照目前的经济和疫情态势，中国将是2020年二十国集团中唯一实现正增长的国家。

The huge shock to many of the world's biggest economies from the coronavirus pandemic may not be quite as bad as economists feared just a few months ago.

新冠肺炎疫情对世界上许多大型经济体的巨大冲击，可能没有几个月前经济学家担心的那么严重。

In a report published on Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development upgraded its forecast for global economic output this year, noting that while declines were still "uNPRecedented in recent history," the outlook has improved slightly since June.

在周三（9月16日）发布的一份报告中，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）上调了对今年全球经济产出的预测，并指出，尽管降幅仍是“近年来前所未有的”，但前景自6月以来略有改善。

The Paris-based agency said it now expects the world economy to shrink by 4.5% in 2020 before expanding by 5% in 2021. Previously, the OECD said it thought the global economy would contract by 6% this year and grow 5.2% next year.

总部位于巴黎的经合组织说，预计2020年全球经济将下滑4.5%，2021年将增长5%。此前，经合组织认为全球经济今年将下滑6%，明年将增长5.2%。

But the agency, which represents the world's biggest economies, warned that headline figures mask major discrepancies. While it significantly boosted its 2020 forecasts for the United States and China, and slightly raised the outlook for Europe, the OECD lowered its expectations for developing countries such as Mexico, Argentina, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

但代表全球最大经济体的经合组织警告称，整体数据掩盖了重大差异。尽管经合组织大幅提高了对美国和中国2020年的预测，并略微提高了对欧洲的展望，但降低了对墨西哥、阿根廷、印度、南非、印度尼西亚和沙特阿拉伯等发展中国家的预期。

OECD economists said the downgrades reflected "the prolonged spread of the virus, high levels of poverty and informality, and stricter confinement measures for an extended period."

经合组织的经济学家表示，预期的下调反映了“病毒的长期传播、高度贫困和非正规性，以及更为严格的限制措施实行期延长”。

 Customers wait in line to enter a Louis Vuitton store in a mall in Wuhan, Hubei province, on Sept 5. [Photo/Agencies]

China is the only G20 country for which output is projected to rise in 2020, with its economy growing 1.8%, compared to a 3.8% contraction in the United States and a 7.9% decline among the 19 countries that use the euro. Beijing reported Tuesday that retail sales were higher in August than they had been the previous year — the first time sales have increased in 2020.

在二十国集团中，经合组织预计只有中国的2020年经济产出将增长，预期经济增长率为1.8%，相比之下，美国经济预期将下滑3.8%，19个欧元区国家将下滑7.9%。根据中国政府周二（9月15日）发布的报告，中国8月份零售业销售额高于去年同期，这是2020年零售额首次出现增长。

The OECD noted the earlier timing of the country's outbreak and its ability to swiftly bring it under control, as well as policies that paved the way for a rapid bounce back in activity, pointing to strong infrastructure investment in particular.

经合组织指出，中国疫情暴发时间较早，但有能力迅速控制住，并出台了相关政策为经济活动迅速恢复铺平道路，尤其是强有力的基础设施投资。

Meanwhile, South Africa's economy could shrink by 11.5% this year, according to the OECD. Mexico and India's economies are both on track for a 10.2% contraction. That's worse than the forecasts for developed economies with the exception of Italy, which is due to shrink 10.5% after it was hit hard by the virus.

与此同时，根据经合组织的数据，南非经济今年或将下滑11.5%。墨西哥和印度的经济预计将下滑10.2%。这比除意大利以外的其他发达经济体的预期更糟糕，意大利受到疫情重创，预期经济将下滑10.5%。

经济不确定性仍然很高

The OECD cautioned that its outlook is far from set, and much depends on the trajectory of Covid-19 infections and ongoing support from policymakers. It added that the global recovery "lost some momentum over the summer months" after an initial burst of activity.

经合组织警告说，经济前景还远未确定，在很大程度上取决于新冠疫情的进展和政策制定者的持续支持。该组织补充说，在最初的经济重启措施后，全球经济复苏的步伐“在夏季出现放缓的迹象”。

"A recovery is now under way following the easing of strict confinement measures and the reopening of businesses, but uncertainty remains high and confidence is still fragile," the agency said in its report.

经合组织在报告中表示：“在严格的限制措施放松、企业重新开业后，经济正在复苏，但不确定性仍然很高，人们的信心仍然很脆弱。”

Some of its estimates are also contingent on policy assumptions that may not materialize.

经合组织的一些预测所基于的政策假设也可能无法实现。

contingent [kənˈtɪndʒənt]：adj.以事实为依据的；依情况而变的

The OECD assumes, for example, that the United Kingdom will reach a "basic" free trade agreement for goods with the European Union. But talks could be crushed by a controversial bill introduced by Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government.

例如，经合组织假设，英国将与欧盟达成一项“基本”的货物自由贸易协定。但英国政府提出的一项有争议的法案可能会使谈判破裂。

The agency expects the UK economy to shrink by 10.1% this year, a slight improvement over its last estimate.

经合组织预计今年英国经济将下滑10.1%，比之前的预计略有改善。

The OECD is also counting on US lawmakers to approve another stimulus package worth up to $1.5 trillion this fall, though negotiations have reached an impasse. Reaching an agreement may be more difficult as the November election approaches.

经合组织还寄希望于美国在今年秋天批准另一项高达1.5万亿美元（约合人民币10万亿元）的经济刺激计划，但是谈判已陷入僵局。随着11月美国总统大选的临近，达成协议可能会更加困难。

The group's predictions for the global recovery in 2021 are slightly lower than they were in June. OECD economists made clear they see a long road ahead.

经合组织对2021年全球经济复苏的预测比6月份时略低。该组织的经济学家们明确表示，他们认为经济复苏路漫漫。

"In most economies, the level of output at the end of 2021 is projected to remain below that at the end of 2019, and considerably weaker than projected prior to the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-lasting costs from the pandemic," the report said.

报告称：“大多数经济体2021年底的经济产出水平预计仍将低于2019年底，且大幅低于疫情暴发前的预期，这凸显出疫情带来的长期成本风险。”