气候变迁难以预料 亚洲面临一场噩梦
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Asia faces living nightmare from climate change  Asia faces living nightmare from climate change The weather predictions for Asia in 2050 read like a script from a doomsday movie. Except many climatologists and green groups fear they will come true unless there is a concerted global effort to rein in greenhouse gas emissions. In the decades to come, Asia -- home to more than half the world's 6.3 billion people -- will lurch from one climate extreme to another, with impoverished farmers battling droughts, floods, disease, food shortages and rising sea levels. "It's not a pretty picture," said Steve Sawyer, climate policy adviser with Greenpeace in Amsterdam. Global warming and changes to weather patterns are already occurring and there is enough excess carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to drive climate change for decades to come. Already, changes are being felt in Asia but worse is likely to come, Sawyer and top climate bodies say, and could lead to mass migration and widespread humanitarian crises. According to predictions, glaciers will melt faster, some Pacific and Indian Ocean islands will have to evacuate or build sea defenses, storms will become more intense and insect and water-borne diseases will move into new areas as the world warms. All this comes on top of rising populations and spiraling demand for food, water and other resources. Experts say environmental degradation such as deforestation and pollution will likely magnify the impacts of climate change. In what could be a foretaste of the future, Japan was hit by a record 10 typhoons and tropical storms this year, while two-thirds of Bangladesh, parts of Nepal and large areas of northeastern India were flooded, affecting 50 million people, destroying livelihoods and making tens of thousands ill. The year before, a winter cold snap and a summer heat wave killed more than 2,000 people in India. 对2050年亚洲气候的预测就像一部关于世界末日的电影剧本。 很多气候学家和绿色组织担心这一切会变成现实，除非全球的人们能够达成共识，协力控制温室气体的排放。 在未来几十年里，亚洲（全球63亿人口中超过一半人的家园）的气候将倾向另一个极端，贫困的农民将和干旱、洪水、疾病、食物短缺以及不断升高的海平面进行斗争。 “这不是一幅美丽的图画。”阿姆斯特丹“绿色和平”组织的气候政策顾问史蒂夫·索伊尔说。全球变暖和天气模式的改变已经发生，大气层中过量的二氧化碳和其他温室气体足以加速未来几十年的气候变迁。 索伊尔和一些研究气候问题的知名团体认为，目前在亚洲已经能察觉到某些变化，但以后的情况可能会更糟。这种变化还可能导致大规模的移民和普遍的人道主义危机。 据推测，冰山会加速融化，太平洋和印度洋上的一些海岛将被迫疏散岛上居民，或者修建防浪堤。随着全球越来越温暖，暴风雨会更加猛烈，由昆虫和饮水传染的疾病将扩散到新的地区。 这一切的到来，将使人类本已面临的人口增长和对食物、饮水及其它资源需求日增的问题雪上加霜。专家认为，环境恶化，如森林砍伐和环境污染，将很可能加剧气候变化造成的影响。 有些例子可以看作对将来的预示：今年，日本遭到创记录的10级台风和热带风暴的侵袭。孟加拉国2/3的国土、尼泊尔部分地区和印度东北的大部分地区均发生洪灾，影响波及5千万人口，毁坏了人们的生活，还造成数万人染病。 去年，印度的一场冬季寒流和夏季热浪夺走了两千多人的生命。 doomsday : Judgment Day（世界末日，最后审判日） lurch: to roll or pitch suddenly or erratically（突然倾斜） heat wave: a period of unusually hot weather（热浪期，一段天气异常热的时期） |
