银行闹钱荒对中国是好事
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爱思英语编者按：中国银行系统眼下经历的钱荒表明，中国政府对金融机构施加了相当大的压力，以推动中国经济的转型，逐渐摆脱对基础设施建设投资项目和出口的依赖，更多的靠国内的消费来拉动经济的发展。全球第二大经济体有望借此步入正轨。
过去几周，中国银行业出现钱荒，搅乱了市场，投资者担心中国各银行的流动性紧缩可能进一步拖累世界第二大经济体的增长。虽然这种情况可能发生，但其实信贷紧缩对中国和世界其他地区有利。 虽然中国的银行体系并不存在深层次的问题，但它缺乏透明度。过去几年中影子银行已经迅速崛起：银行以较低的银行同业拆借利率贷得资金，然后再出借给信托公司、保险公司、租赁公司和其他非正式贷款机构，这些公司和机构再向他人提供高风险贷款。 一些分析人士担心，影子银行系统掩盖的高风险坏账会击垮银行，严重时甚至可能引发另一场金融危机，而谁都不希望金融危机再次上演。 中国政府表示，宽松的货币政策将结束。周一，中国人民银行（the People's Bank of China）公开宣布称，各银行需更加审慎；多年来的宽松信贷和投机应当停下来。 一周前，央行曾向银行发出警告，继而导致市场恐慌，全球股市急剧下跌。中国各银行现金紧缺问题显露，资金短缺导致同业拆借利率走高。 资金短缺肯定会造成严重损害：虽然大多数经济学家并不认为这个问题会带来巨大的系统性风险，尽管它会导致一些小规模的银行破产。 资金短缺也可能导致中国经济进一步放缓。但华尔街无需恐慌！中国经济增长放缓不一定是坏事。事实上，它可能表明，中国政府正在将经济引入正轨。 过去的二十年里，中国经济实现了卓越的增长。与美国和其他工业化国家不同，中国经济的主要驱动力来自制造业以及道路、桥梁等大型基础设施项目投资。美国消费占经济的70%以上，而中国的消费水平较低。更何况，中国生产的大部分产品并不是用于国内消费，而是出口至世界其他地区。 China's banking system is opaque, if not deeply troubled. Over the years a shadow industry has quickly risen: Banks borrow from each other at low rates, then lend to a mishmash of trust companies, insurance firms, leasing companies and other informal lenders, which in turn, make riskier loans to others. The fear among some analysts is that such a system masks whatever risky and bad loans made -- a problem that could put banks out of business and, worst case, possibly trigger another financial crisis nobody in the world wants to relive. But the party of easy money may be over -- at least if you believe the Chinese government. On Monday, the People's Bank of China, the central bank, publicly announced that the country's banks needed to be more prudent; the easy lending and speculation it helped propel for years needed to end. Banks were warned a week earlier, which panicked markets and led to a sharp selloff in stocks worldwide. China's banks have been squeezed, and the shortage of cash sent lending rates at which banks borrow from each other way up. The cash crunch could certainly do some serious damage: It could cause some smaller banks to go under, although most economists don't think the problem carries huge systemic risks. A cash shortage could also further slow China's economy. But don't panic, Wall Street! A slower growing China may not necessarily be a bad thing. In fact, it likely signals that China's authorities are finally putting the economy on the right path. For the past two decades, China has seen extraordinary growth. Unlike the U.S.and other industrialized countries, China's economy has largely been driven by manufacturing and heavy spending in big infrastructure projects such as roads, bridges, and the like. And unlike the U.S, where consumption makes up more than 70% of the economy, Chinese consumers don't spend nearly as much. More than that, they don't buy the bulk of what the country produces; it's sold to the rest of the world by way of exports. 中国正努力改变经济增长方式；当前的增长方式由于包括严重的污染问题在内的种种原因已经难以为继。这对于像中国三一重工（Sany Heavy Industry）和卡特彼勒公司（Caterpillar）（位于伊利诺伊州皮奥里亚）这样的企业而言不是什么好消息，因为这些公司指望着受益于中国建筑行业的爆炸性增长。虽然中国央行将拧紧资金龙头的消息激起了市场反应，但此举关乎中国经济实现再平衡的计划，即（像美国一样）主要由消费驱动增长，减少对制造业和建筑业的依赖。 它肯定会减缓中国经济的发展，但在耶鲁大学（Yale University）研究员、前摩根士丹利亚洲（Morgan Stanley Asia）首席经济学家斯蒂芬•罗奇看来，这是一个好的发展趋势。 最近罗奇在《评论汇编》（Project Syndicate）杂志撰文写道，只要中国能重新平衡其经济，即使增长速度放慢，仍然可以创造足够的就业机会，同时减少贫困。 因为中国旧的增长模式严重依赖制造业和建筑业，这些行业更需要机器、而不是人员，所以创造的就业机会少于以服务为导向的经济体。比如，一个广告公司依赖于员工的创意，而一个制造厂依赖机器的运转速度。罗奇提供了一个有趣的统计数据：服务业在单位国内生产总值中创造的就业比制造业和建筑业要多35%。这种状态很难实现。正因如此华尔街总在讨论的一个话题是，中国将会“软着陆”还是“硬着陆”。中国需要找到一个微妙的平衡，在实施改革的同时避免金融动荡。 即使市场对此出现反应，罗奇表示中国央行传达的信息最终是积极的：“短期内会带来痛苦，因为它给金融机构施加了较大压力，但这说明政府真的下定决心改变不可持续的经济增长方式。” 周二，中国央行安抚紧张不安的市场，表示将引导银行间利率趋于合理。目前还不清楚利率将处于什么水平，但这番番言论似乎已经使投资者平静下来。周一，隔夜贷款利率从6.6%下降到5.8%。6月之前，这个利率更低，约为2%至3%。 随着中国继续实施改革，未来可能还会出现波动性事件。但它们可能利大于弊。 China is trying to change the way it grows; it can't continue for a host of reasons, including huge pollution problems. This is bad news for companies like China-based Sany Heavy Industry and Peoria, Ill.-based Caterpillar (CAT) that have banked on the exploding growth of China's construction industry. And while news that China's central bank will narrow its money spigot has caused markets to react, the move ties to the country's broader plans to rebalance growth so that it's driven more by U.S.-style consumption and less on manufacturing and construction. That will surely slow down the Chinese economy -- a welcomed development if you ask experts like Stephen Roach, a Yale University fellow and former chief economist at Morgan Stanley Asia. So long as China rebalances its economy, it can still create enough jobs and reduce poverty with slower growth, Roach wrote recently in Project Syndicate. That's because China's old model relied heavily on manufacturing and construction, which needed many more machines than people and didn't produce nearly as many jobs as a more service-oriented economy. It's the difference between -- say, an advertising agency that depend on the creative minds of workers vs. a manufacturing plant that count on the speed of machines. Roach offers an interesting statistic: China's services sector requires about 35% more jobs per unit of GDP than do manufacturing and construction. Achieving this is tricky. And that's partly why we always hear Wall Street ask if China is in for a "soft" or "hard landing." China needs to find a delicate balance between implementing reforms while avoiding financial turmoil. Even if markets reacted, Roach says the message delivered by China's central bank is ultimately positive: "It's painful short-term because it puts a lot of pressure on financial institutions, but it's a visible sign of a government that is really determined to change the course of unsustainable growth." On Tuesday, China's central bank soothed jittery markets, saying that it would guide interbank interest rates to reasonable levels. It's unclear what those rates might look like, but the remarks seemed to have calmed investors. The overnight lending rate fell to 5.8% from 6.6% Monday. Before June rates were lower -- at around 2% to 3%. As China continues to make changes, we'll probably see volatile spurts again. But know it likely has more to do with good news than bad. |
