特朗普大搞单边主义“底气”何来

近期，以不按牌理出牌、特立独行的美国总统特朗普再次发飙，掀起了一阵新的单边主义狂潮，举世为之侧目。

US President Donald Trump, known for his unconventional and sometimes eccentric moves and personality, was making waves again by playing up protectionism and unilateralism, and this shocked the whole world.

在国际政治领域，特朗普不断狂热“退群”，继执政第一年多次“退群”之后，不久前又退出了伊朗核协议和联合国人权理事会。而且，特朗普不会就此止步。依其“单边”逻辑，他退出几乎所有不是由美国独家主导的国际组织或协议也是可能的。

In the international political arena, it seems Trump is keen on withdrawing the US from international or multilateral organizations and deals. In the first year of his presidency, he exited several of them, most recently, the comprehensive Iranian nuclear deal and the United Nations Human Rights Council, and still, there seems no sign of an end to it. Considering his logic for unilateralism, no one should be surprised if he decided to exit all international organizations or deals which are not dominated by the US.

在世界经济领域，特朗普全面挑起贸易战，搞得硝烟四起，全球不安。其中与盟国钢铝产品加征关税之争导致最近一次G7峰会形成六对一局面，特朗普不但迟到早退，还拒签联合公报，使G7峰会历史上第一次不欢而散。日前，特朗普还威胁要对欧盟汽车加征高额关税，双方贸易争端可能升级。特朗普对中国则抡起了最狠的贸易大棒，不顾WTO规则和双方达成的协议，继公布对华500亿美元商品加征惩罚性关税清单，又威胁要对高达2000亿美元的中国产品加征关税。如果他真这样做，无异于朝着将中美贸易“归零”的方向走，将产生灾难性后果。

On the global economic front, Trump is waging trade wars with many countries, including US allies, and this has given the world jitters. US tariff spat with the European Union over steel and aluminum products led to its conflict with six other G7 members at the Quebec summit. Trump was not only late for the meeting and left early, but also refused to sign the joint statement, leading to a situation in which the G7 summit, for the first time, ended without any statement issued. Trump again threatened to levy additional tariffs on automobiles imported from the EU, and trade tensions will likely escalate. As far as China is concerned, Trump brandished the big stick of trade tariffs, and in disregard of World Trade Organization rules and mutual agreements, threatened to impose additional tariffs on products from China worth $200 billion, after having announced punitive tariffs on Chinese products worth $50 billion. If he really followed through on tariff plans, he would destroy China-US trade.

在地缘战略领域，特朗普用行动落实将美国战略中心从反恐向与大国地缘竞逐的转变。在西线，首次在波兰驻军，加强了在欧洲尤其是在东欧和波罗的海沿岸国家的军事存在与活动，对俄罗斯形成抵近战略围堵态势。在东线，加紧实施“印太战略”，罕见地强化对华遏制，尤其在台湾问题上，频踩中国红线，冒可能引发双方战略碰撞的风险。同时，推出多年来美国耗费最高的军事预算，大力扩充军备，特别着力研发新式核武器，并宣布推动组建“太空部队”，明确提出要确保美国的太空霸主地位，以图取得对中俄全面绝对军事优势，为美国独霸世界扫清主要障碍。

On the geopolitical front, Trump's unilateral moves represented a fundamental shift of America's strategic priorities from terrorism to rivalry with major countries. On the Western front, the US, for the first time, stationed troops in Poland, which strengthened its military presence in Europe, particularly Eastern Europe and countries along the Baltic Sea, and is containing Russia. On the Eastern front, the US advocated and implemented the Indo-Pacific strategy, which uNPRecedentedly strengthened its containment policy against China. On the question of Taiwan, the US repeatedly tested the red line drawn by China, and risked triggering strategic conflicts between the two major powers. The US adopted a big defense budget to expand its military capabilities, in particular, the development of new nuclear weapons, and announced the establishment of its space forces to seek “American dominance in space” so as to establish America's absolute military advantage over China and Russia and to clear hurdles for American hegemony.

在中东，特朗普推行极端亲以政策，放任并支持以色列霸道横行；极端敌视和极限制裁伊朗，强化对叙利亚的军事干预和打击，全面搅乱了地区局势，使之面临爆发更大战乱的危机局面。

In the Middle East, Trump adopted a policy that favors Israel by tolerating and supporting Israel's domineering activities, is hostile toward Iran, and calls for greater military interference and strikes in Syria. This fundamentally disrupted the regional situation and heightens the risk of full-blown war.

特朗普敢于同国际社会对着干，肆无忌惮地大搞单边主义，有其特有的原因和条件。

Then, let's take a look at why Trump dared to buck the global trend to take reckless, unilateral moves.

第一，错位的指导理念。特朗普施政的核心理念是“美国优先”，声称“世界各国必须为美国第一让路”。如此毫不掩饰地表露要将美国利益凌驾于别国之上，在美国历届总统中极为罕见。这使人仿佛听到了老列强对弱小国家巧取豪夺时代的回声。在这种时代错位理念指导下，美国必然要以邻为壑，损人利己，不择手段地打压和削弱竞争对手，以服务于“美国再度强大”的战略需要。他自以为这一套已显成效，压制了对手，增加了美国霸权实力地位，因而乐此不疲甚至变本加厉而为之。

First, his mismatched guiding philosophy. The core philosophy of Trump's administration is “America First”, and he even claimed that no one may obstruct the road of the US. It is uNPRecedented that a US president directly and openly places American interests above any other countries. This seemed to echo the age of plundering the weak by the old imperial powers. Guided by such outdated principles, it was natural that the Trump administration adopted a beggar-thy-neighbor approach and resorted to every possible means to contain and weaken its competitors so as to serve its strategic goal of “Making America Great Again”. Trump assumed that his tactics to contain competitors and solidify American dominance were working, and therefore doubled down on the capricious and unilateral moves.

第二，利用超强国力支撑。特朗普有恃无恐地横行，就是仗着美国的独超强势。虽然当今世界正经历百年大变局，美国世界霸主地位在走下坡路，但它仍是全球唯一超级大国，综合国力尤其是军事和经济实力仍独步天下。不少国家安全上要依靠它，各国对外开放发展经济都有赖于它。美国历届政府都恃力逞强，坚持推行霸道强权政策。特朗普则更走极端，在国际关系中动辄使用“极限施压”、“极限制裁”、“零容忍”、“踩红线”、“退群”等超高压手段讹诈威吓和遏制对手，迫其作出让步，以实现美国利益最大化。

Second, America's national strength. Trump counted on America's super strength for his reckless moves. Although the world is undergoing a fundamental transformation and the US' global dominance is waning, America is still the world's only superpower, and its overall national strength, particularly economic and military prowess, is still unrivaled. Many countries are relying on the US for security, and more countries depend on the US for economic development. US administration have a record of cashing in on American strength. Trump went even farther by blackmailing, intimidating or containing others through the random use of “extreme pressure”, “extreme sanctions”, “zero tolerance”, “breach of bottom lines,” and “withdrawals” from organizations or deals in international relations. By doing so, Trump intended to coerce others to yield and therefore maximize American interests.

第三，一定的社会基础。特朗普是凭反传统精英政治和“让美国再度强大”的口号，得到在美国很有声势的保守势力和民粹思想较重的中下层群体支持而崛起的。他推行强硬单边主义政策且在某些方面有所见好，又助长了美国政治保守主义和社会民粹主义，也在一定程度上提升了他的支持率，扩大了他的社会基础。现在主导美国政治的共和党趋于保守化、民粹化和“特朗普化”，完成了对特朗普由厌嫌到接纳到拥戴的“三级跳”式转变。这使特朗普更加我行我素。近日他竟宣布要世界各国在11月4日前完全停止进口伊朗石油，“谁要是进口伊朗石油，就制裁谁”。这无异对各国发出了“最后通牒”。如此极端单边主义霸道作为，在战后国际关系史上几无先例。

Third, some backing from social strata. Trump, shouting slogans against the traditional elite politics, rose to stardom and power with the support from powerful conservatives and the middle and lower social strata. His unilateral policies have helped fuel political conservatism and social populism in the American society, and to some extent, helped lift his popularity and consolidate the social foundation supporting him. The Republicans have undergone a three-phase makeover in their attitudes toward Trump – from dislike, to acceptance, to support. This gave Trump bigger confidence to act this way. He recently ordered all countries to completely stop importing Iranian crude oil from November 4, threatening to impose sanctions on any countries that continue to import Iranian oil after that. This is an ultimatum to all nations. Such extreme unilateral and hegemonic actions are uNPRecedented in the post-World War II history of international relations.

特朗普大搞单边主义同他个人特质也有关系。他从一个纯粹的商人一 跃而成美国总统，在思想上从极端个人主义发展为极端民族利己主义，对世界大势知之甚少，缺乏战略和长远视野，好急功近利。极端自私和短视也可以成为一些人“无畏”和一意孤行的“底气”。

In addition, Trump's reckless unilateral moves could also be attributed to his personality. When Trump, as a businessman, suddenly became president, he had to change himself from an extreme individualist to an extreme nationalist, who knows little about global affairs, lacks strategic and long-term vision and is always eager for quick successes and benefits. Someone so short-sighted and selfish would dare do anything.

特朗普的所作所为已造成严重后果，使得国际关系和国际形势出现近些年来少有的紧张动荡，损害了世界和平发展大局与各国利益，也使美国自己受损。他挑战国际规制和国际秩序，一再出尔反尔自食其言，既使美国的国际信誉和声望降到历史谷底，陷于空前孤立，消损了其软实力，也损害了其实际利益。几乎所有美国发动贸易战的对手都进行了有力反制，使美国陷于四面楚歌，其中加拿大对从美国进口价值126亿美元的商品加征25%的高额关税，震动了美国的产业界。这些应能促使特朗普反思。希望他回归理性，回到同各国进行正常交往与合作的轨道，使美国摆脱与其他国家的对抗共输，实现友好相处与互利共赢。

Trump's unilateral actions has had grave consequences. It has brought turmoil to international relations, harmed global peace and development and the interests of all nations, and harmed America itself. He challenged international rules and global order and repeatedly broke his own promises. This caused damage to America's international reputation, threw the US into uNPRecedented isolation, and undermined US' soft power. All countries have launched or are launching retaliatory measures against the US in the trade war. Canada has decided to impose an additional 25% tariffs on imports from the US worth $12.6 billion, jolting American industries. The retaliatory moves should be enough to serve as a wake-up call for Trump and should be able to force Trump to be rational. Hopefully Trump will soon return to the track of normal exchanges and cooperation with other countries and work together with them for mutual benefits and win-win outcomes.