金融危机十年后 美国大学生专业选择有啥变化？

2008年的金融危机给世界经济带来了深远影响，甚至在十年之后，还在左右着美国大学生对于专业的选择。如今，因为害怕失业，大学生们倾向于选择职业前景明朗且更加实用的计算机科学和金融等专业，而历史学、文学、哲学等人文学科专业则进入了漫长的衰退期，即便经济复苏也难以再现往日兴盛局面。

 Quartz网站截图 Ten years have passed since the 2008 financial crisis, and the effects linger. For one thing, the crisis produced a significant shift in American higher education. Scared by a seemingly treacherous labor market, since the downturn college students have turned away from the humanities and towards job-oriented degrees.

2008年金融危机已经过去了十年，然而影响犹在。就说美国高等教育，在金融危机的冲击下产生了重大改变。金融危机之后，出于对变化莫测的劳动力市场的恐惧，美国大学生纷纷放弃攻读人文学科，转而选择容易就业的专业。

It’s not clear they are making the right decision.

他们所做的选择是否正确，尚未可知。

The humanities were humming along prior to 2008, according to an analysis by the Northeastern University historian Benjamin Schmidt. Over the previous decade, disciplines like history, philosophy, English literature, and religion were either growing or holding steady as a share of all college majors. But in the decade after the financial crisis, all of these majors took a nosedive.

美国东北大学历史学家本杰明·施密特称，2008年之前人文学科还是挺吃香的。在金融危机前的十年，学习历史、哲学、英语文学和宗教等学科专业的学生比例持续增加或保持稳定。但是在金融危机后的十年，所有这些专业的学生比例都直线下降。

The popularity of the history major is an illustrative example. From 1998 to 2007, the share of college students graduating with a degree in history averaged around 2%. By 2017, it had fallen closer to 1%. (All data in this article are based on reports that colleges submit to the US Department of Education.)

历史专业的受欢迎度就是个很有说服力的例子。从1998年到2007年，获得历史专业学位的大学毕业生平均占2%。到2017年，这一数字降到了约1%。（本文中的所有数据都基于各个大学提交给美国教育部的报告。）

 Quartz网站截图 Other humanities majors saw a similar fall. “Declines have hit almost every field in the humanities… and related social sciences,” wrote Schmidt in the The Atlantic. “[T]hey have not stabilized with the economic recovery, and they appear to reflect a new set of student priorities, which are being formed even before they see the inside of a college classroom.”

其他的人文学科专业也经历了学生数量的锐减。施密特在《大西洋月刊》中写道：“几乎每一个人文学科和相关的社会科学专业都遭受了重创。这些专业并没有随着经济复苏而重振，似乎反映出了学生心目中优先序列的变化，而这在他们走进大学教室前就已经形成了。”

 Quartz网站截图 What’s replacing the humanities? Mostly, majors with a very clear career path. Of the 20 majors with over 25,000 graduates in 2017, by far the fastest growing was exercise science, followed by nursing, other health and medical degrees, and computer science.

哪些专业取代了人文学科的位置呢？大多是职业前景明朗的专业。2017年毕业的2.5万多名大学生就读的20个专业中，迄今为止人数增长最快的是运动科学，其次是护理和其他健康医疗专业，还有计算机科学。

In his research, Schmidt considered whether the increase in professionally focused degrees, and the fall of humanities, could be a result of the changing demographics of who attends college, rather than the result of the financial crisis. Increasingly, college attendees are more likely to be women, and a larger share of Americans from poorer families attend college. Perhaps it was these changes that explain the shift in preferred majors? It wasn’t. Schmidt found that the trend appears in nearly every group he looked at, including students at elite universities like Harvard and Princeton, where the humanities have historically flourished.

在研究报告中，施密特曾考虑过，以职业为导向的专业增加，以及人文学科的衰落，是否由大学生成分的变化导致，而非金融危机导致？如今女大学生越来越多，还有很大一部分大学生是来自穷困家庭的美国人。也许这些变化可以解释热门专业的变化？答案是，并不能。施密特发现，这种趋势在他所调查的每一个人群中都出现了，包括哈佛和普林斯顿等精英大学的学生，历史上这些大学的人文学科一直很兴盛。

 Quartz网站截图 The decision by many students to turn towards a major that gives them clearer professional skills is understandable. A nursing degree is likely to provide a more stable income after graduation, making college loan payments more manageable.

许多学生转而选择能赋予自己更明确职业技能的专业，这种决定是可以理解的。一个护理专业学位能在毕业后给自己带来更稳定的收入，有助于偿还助学贷款。

But for many students, the turn away from the humanities may not pay off. As Schmidt points out, humanities majors don’t make much less than people who choose to study computer science and finance, and the differences are probably less about the chosen major than that the person who studies finance tends to be more interested in making a lot of money. Also, if the tech bubble bursts, computer science may even be riskier than a humanities degree, which gives graduates a broader set of knowledge.

但对许多学生而言，放弃人文学科专业也许并不能带来良好收益。施密特指出，人文学科专业毕业生的收入并不比计算机科学和金融专业的毕业生收入低多少，而且不同专业的收入差异或许并不是因为专业选择所致，而可能是金融专业的人更热衷于挣大钱。而且，如果技术泡沫破灭，计算机科学甚至可能比人文学科专业风险更大，因为人文学科专业的毕业生知识面更广。

Just as the 2008 financial crisis turned Americans away from the humanities, it is possible that the Trump era will bring them back. Amy Wang wrote in Quartz that the “historic” nature of the Trump presidency has stoked a renewed interest in history classes, leading the discipline to return to the top of declared majors for students at Yale. Although the US economy is stable, since the political climate is so turbulent the humanities may be more needed than ever to make sense of it all.

2008年金融危机让美国人放弃了人文学科，但或许特朗普时代会让人们重新回归人文学科。艾米·王在Quartz网站的文章中写道，特朗普当选总统这一“历史性”事件让人们重新燃起对历史课的兴趣，这使得历史学重新成为耶鲁大学最热门的申报专业。尽管美国经济稳定下来了，但是当前政治气候如此动荡，人们比以往任何时候都更需要学习人文学才能理解这一切乱象。