为什么成功的投资者善于管理情绪?
A PROMISE OF spring is renewal and rebirth. In climates that experience a long, cold winter, the warmer temperatures and budding flowers represent signs of hope. The saying "April showers bring May flowers" is another phrase that describes the promise of spring. These sentiments also apply to investing. It may be constructive to view "winter" as a market downturn (although in human emotions, this is accompanied by fear and panic, which is usually not elicited by a normal winter). Spring could be the gradual (and as history shows, inevitable) rebound to a bull market. The S&P 500 index is in striking distance of its all-time high of 2,940, which it reached in late September just before it rolled over into a three-month correction. That fourth-quarter downtrend erased the index's gains for the entire year of 2018. Then came renewal, in the form of a fresh uptrend that began with only three trading days left in the year. No, the nascent market rally did not correspond precisely with the change in seasons, but the metaphor still applies. The rally that began in late December is part of a much longer bull market that got under way in March 2009. Since then, the S&P 500 has risen 327%. The aging bull may be getting somewhat long in the tooth. It's certainly due for a major correction at some point, but no one - including prognosticators in the "guru" class - knows when. There are ways to protect yourself in a market correction so you enjoy the all-but-certain turnaround that eventually sends stocks higher. But the steps to shore up your portfolio are not necessarily what you might think. It's not easy to sit through a severe downturn and stick to your pre-determined strategy; you may feel an impulse to do something - anything - to stem the bleeding. Broad asset-class diversification is important. This may be disappointing to hear, as it flies in the face of the "take action" impulse. Contrary to popular belief, investing is an exercise in managing your emotions, not an exercise in logic. |