孙远--GMAT作文--讲义（一）c

Case Study 2：

The following appeared in an Avia Airlines departmental memorandum: “On average, 9 out of every 1000 passengers who traveled on Avia Airlines in 1993 filed a complaint about our luggage-handing procedures. This means that although some 1 percent of our passengers were unhappy with those procedures, the overwhelming majority were quite satisfied with them; thus it would appear that a review of the procedures is not important to our goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia's passengers.”

     Discuss how logically convincing you find this argument. In explaining your point of view, be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. Also discuss what, if anything, would make the argument more sound and persuasive, or would help you to better evaluate its conclusion.

Student Essay

   In Avia Airlines's survey, nearly 1 present of its passengers were unhappy with its baggage-handling procedures. The result sounds good. But the small pool of samples in regard with all passengers, the weakness of procedure of complaint, and other reasons below will weaken the result, or draw to an opposite conclusion .

   Avia Airlines can only survive by transporting hundreds of thousands of passengers each years. Many passengers who were not satisfied with its baggage-handling procedures maybe did not write down a complaint. Assuming that only one percent of those unsatisfied passengers complained in written forms, the number of unsatisfied would be 900 out of every 1000 passenger. It is a horrible ratio. Avia Airlines could be murdered by the remaining 899 unsatisfied ones.

  To 1000, 9 seems a very small ratio. But if the first of the nine unsatisfied passengers is President Clinton, the story is attactive to most reporters. In some hours or days, Avia Arline will exist in newspapers, magazines, TV sports, reports and Internet. This kind of free advertisement will surely bomb AA to sky.

   Avia Airlines has too many competitors in and out of USA. Clients of other Airlines, for instance, Singapore. Airlines or Japan Airlines may have no complaints about baggage-handling procedures. AA may gradually loose more and more of its passengers and die out.

   So AA' s conclusion would. be absurd through reasoning. Unsatisfied passengers who did not complain, the famous persons who complained, and competitors with no unsatisfied passengers all will make disastrous result for the Avia Airlines. So a review of the procedure is very important to its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of passengers.

Revised Essay

  In this argument, the arguer concludes that a review of Avia Airline's baggage-handling procedures will not further its goal of maintaining or increasing the number of Avia passengers. To support this conclusion, the arguer points out that only one percent of passengers who traveled on Avia last year filed a complaint. In addition, the arguer reasons that the great majority of Avia passengers are happy with baggage handling at the airline. This argument suffers from two critical flaws.   

  In the first place, the argument turns on the assumption that the 99 percent of Avia passengers who did not complain were happy with the airline's baggage-handling procedures. However, the arguer provides no evidence to support this assumption. The fact that, on average, 9 out of 1000 passengers took the time and effort to formally complain indicates nothing about the experiences or attitudes of the remaining 991. It is possible that many passengers were displeased but too busy to formally complain, while others had no opinion at all. Lacking more complete information about passengers' attitudes, we cannot assume that the great majority of passengers who did not complain were happy.

    In the second place, in the absence of information about the number of passengers per flight and about the complaint records of competing airlines, the statistics presented in the memorandum might distort the seriousness of the problem. Given that most modern aircrafts carry as many as 300 to 500 passengers, it is possible that Avia received as many as 4 or 5 complaints per flight. The arguer unfairly trivializes this record. Moreover, the arguer fails to compare Avia's record with those of its competitors. It is possible that a particular competitor received virtually no baggage-handling complaints last year. If so, Avia's one percent complaint rate might be significant enough to motivate customers to switch to another airline.

   In conclusion, the arguer fails to demonstrate that a review of the baggage-handling procedures at Avia Airlines is not needed to maintain or increase the number of Avia's passengers. To strengthen the argument, the author would have to provide evidence that most Avia passengers last year were indeed happy with baggage-handling procedures. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more information about the numbers of Avia passengers per flight last year and about the baggage-handling records of Avia's competitors.