2007年5月14日 IMF：海湾国家今年盈余将缩水

Gulf oil exporters' current account surpluses are expected to fall this year on rising domestic investment and softer oil prices, said the International Monetary Fund said.

然而，这些国家在全球范围内收购国际性企业和房地产的投资热情似乎将持续下去。

But the global spending spree undertaken by Gulf states, snapping up international companies and real estate nevertheless looks set to continue.

IMF在其半年一度的中东和中亚地区经济展望中指出，石油出口国的合计经常账户盈余今年将缩减至1800亿美元，其占国内生产总值(GDP)的比重将从去年的20%降至13%。IMF和其他经济学家利用经常账户盈余来预测投资者购买外国资产的闲置资金量。

The fund's half-yearly regional economic outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia region said oil-exporting countries' combined current account, used by the IMF and other economists to gauge the spare cash investors have to plough into foreign assets, will narrow to 13 per cent of gross domestic product, or $180bn, from 20 per cent of GDP last year.

IMF预测，沙特阿拉伯今年的经常账户盈余将下降28%，从去年的960亿美元降至约700亿美元。

Saudi Arabia's current account surplus will decline 28 per cent to about $70bn (€52bn, ￡35bn) from $96bn last year, the IMF forecast.

然而，尽管中东和中亚地区的经常账户盈余预计将回落，但该地区的经常账户累计盈余仍处于高位。自2003年以来，该地区的累计盈余已增至8100亿美元，其中海湾阿拉伯国家所占比例为四分之三。

But despite the expected dip in surpluses this year, the cumulative current account surplus for the Middle East and Central Asia region remains high. Since 2003, it has grown to $810bn, with Gulf Arab states accounting for three-quarters of that amount.

IMF中东暨中亚部门主任莫辛汗(Mohsin Khan)表示，现在这些资金流回海外的时机已经成熟。

These funds are ripe for recycling overseas, says Mohsin Khan, IMF Middle East and Central Asia department director.

"自从（去年）该地区股市崩盘以来，投资者已将目光转向房地产和外国资产，"莫辛汗在接收一次采访时表示，"他们还着眼于本地区的资产，主要目标为埃及、约旦和北非。"

"Since the regional stock market crash [last year], investors have looked to real estate and foreign assets," said Mr Khan in an interview. "They are also looking at assets around the region, going in a major way into Egypt, along with Jordan and North Africa."

IMF表示，该地区整体前景将继续明朗。

The general outlook continued to be bright, the IMF said.

经济改革、有利的全球环境和油价高企令该地区去年的实际GDP增幅达到6.5%，同时使该地区人均收入较2002年高出75%。此轮石油美元热潮始于2002年。

A combination of economic reforms, a favourable global environment and high oil prices produced real GDP growth across the region of 6.5 per cent last year, bringing up average per capita incomes 75 per cent higher than 2002, the first year of this petrodollar boom.

由于石油将继续推动经济增长，预计中东和中亚地区今年的经济增速将与去年持平。

Economic growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is expected to remain at the same level this year as the oil-driven surge continues.

IMF表示，埃及等新兴市场国家将继续保持强劲增长势头。如果国内安全得到改善，在更为强健的制度和更为稳定的政策推动下，伊拉克、阿富汗和苏丹等爆发过国内冲突的国家应能实现两位数增长。

Emerging markets such as Egypt would continue to grow strongly, the IMF said. Post-conflict states such as Iraq, Afghanistan and Sudan should jump into double-digit growth on stronger institutions and steadier policies, providing security improved.