2007年5月28日 生物燃料需求推高全球粮食价格

Soft commodities are hardening. Corn, wheat, cocoa and coffee prices have all risen strongly in recent months, suggesting consumers will may be facing face an extended period of more expensive food.high prices.

今年，玉米和小麦价格已触及10多年来最高水平，咖啡和可可价格也已分别触及8年和4年高点。

This year, corn and wheat prices have reached their highest levels for a more than a decade, while coffee prices have hit an eight-year high and cocoa has risen to a four-year high.

分析师表示，可可和咖啡价格上涨，是由于不利天气影响了产量，而消费在增长；而粮食价格正经历一次结构性调整，这主要归因于市场对生物燃料的需求日益增长。

Yet while price gains for cocoa and coffee have been driven by adverse weather affecting production during a period of rising consumption, analysts say grains prices are experiencing a structural shift, owing mainly to the growing demand for biofuels.

德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的迈克尔o休斯(Michael Hughes)表示："就像能源和金属实际价格大幅上涨一样，粮食价格也将经历类似趋势。目前粮食价格仍远低于上世纪70年代和90年代中期（经通胀调整后的）高位。"

"Just as energy and metals prices have rallied sharply in real terms, a similar fate awaits grains, which remain significantly below the [inflation adjusted] highs of the 1970s and mid-1990s," says Michael Hughes of Deutsche Bank.

最近食品价格上扬引发了市场的担心，即消费者的日常购物支出可能会增加，而决策者担心不断上涨的食品价格将导致通胀加剧。此外，由于经济持续增长，全球食品需求正强劲增长。

Recent price strength has sparked fears that consumers could face higher bills for their weekly shopping, while policymakers are concerned that rising food prices will drive inflation higher. In addition, global food demand is rising strongly, thanks to sustained economic growth.

国际谷物理事会(International Grains Council)称，尽管2007-08年，全球粮食产量将增长6.2%，达到创纪录的16.66亿吨，但预计食品价格仍将上涨，因为产量仍跟不上全球消费量。国际谷物理事会预测，今年全球粮食消费量将达到16.80亿吨，较上年增长3.1%。

Predictions for higher prices come in spite of expectations that global grain production will rise 6.2 per cent to a record 1.666bn tonnes in 2007-08, according to the International Grains Council. However, this will not match global consumption - forecast by the IGC at 1.680bn tonnes, up 3.1 per cent on the previous year.