2007年5月30日 中国股市不足以撼动世界

A correction in Shanghai will not bring about a sustained bear market in global equities, according to Ian Scott, global equity strategist at Lehman Brothers.

他表示，与上世纪90年代末和2000年的科技、媒体和电信板块(TMT)繁荣以及随后的衰退相比，有5条理由认为，目前中国"泡沫"股市的影响不会很大。

He says there are five reasons why the current Chinese bubble market is not as significant as the technology, media and telecommunications boom, and subsequent bust, of the late 1990s and 2000.

"中国内地股市市值仅占全球总市值7%。即使算上能源、资本品和基础产业等可能相关的全球板块，再加上香港和台湾股市的全部市值，也不过占全球总市值的28%。相比之下，2000年TMT板块占全球总市值的39%，"他表示。

"The Chinese market capitalisation stands at only 7 per cent of the global total. Even adding in global sectors that are possibly related - eg energy, capital goods and basic industries - and also the whole whole market caps of Hong Kong and Taiwan would only take this to 28 per cent. Compare this with TMT, which accounted for 39 per cent of global market cap in 2000," he says.

此外，"中国股市与全球其它市场相对隔绝。由于很多海外投资者并不直接持有中国股票，因此这在很大程度上只是个中国国内的问题。"

Moreover, "the Chinese market is relatively isolated from the rest of the world. To a large extent, this is a domestic affair as many overseas investors do not have direct exposure in their portfolios.

"尽管最近有大量资金流入股市，但中国投资者95%的金融资产仍然是现金。这为市场下跌提供了一种缓冲。"

"Despite the strong recent inflows into the stock market, Chinese investors still have 95 per cent of financial assets in cash. This provides a cushion against fall in the market."

"决策者也在努力解决这个问题。"

"Policymakers are also trying to address the problem.


"最后，中国以外的全球股市估值似乎非常低廉，股票净发行量也不高。这与2000年相比非常不同，当时的股票估值偏高，而发行量也很高。"

"Lastly, global equities outside China appear very cheaply valued, while net issuance is subdued. This is very different from 2000, when valuations were stretched and issuance was high."