2007年7月23日 市场交易员担心美元继续走低

美元兑欧元汇率何时能触及1.40美元？这是许多分析师正在提出的问题。一周前，美元兑欧元汇率曾触及1.3843美元的新低，美元兑一系列货币（包括英镑）也触及了多年来的新低。

How long before the dollar hits $1.40 to the euro? That is the question many analysts are asking after a week when the US currency struck a new low of $1.3843 to the euro and fresh multiyear lows against a range of currencies, including sterling.

今年迄今，美元兑欧元和英镑汇率已分别下跌4.5%和4%，美元兑英镑汇率甚至在上周触及了26年来最低水平。美元贸易加权指数已跌至1992年来的最低水平。

The US currency has fallen 4.5 per cent against the euro this year and 4 per cent against sterling, hitting a new 26-year nadir against the pound last week. The trade-weighted dollar index dropped to its lowest since 1992.

美元汇率相当重要，因为美国依赖于外国大量购买美国证券和其它资产，为美国经常账户赤字提供融资。

The dollar exchange rate is important because the US relies on hefty foreign purchases of securities and other assets to fund its current account deficit.

BellCurve Trading首席市场策略师威廉o斯特拉祖鲁(William Strazzullo)表示："在未来某个时刻，美元下跌将导致外国投资者不再购买美国资产，并出售手中持有的现有资产。"

"At some point, the fall in the dollar will translate into foreign investors no longer buying US assets and selling their existing holdings," said William Strazzullo, chief market strategist at BellCurve Trading.

法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的汉斯o雷蒂克(Hans Redeker)表示："我们预计，随着投资者减持美元计价资产，到本季度末，欧元兑美元汇率将升至1.42美元，英镑兑美元也将达到2.10美元。"

"We expect euro/dollar to appreciate to $1.42 by the end of the quarter and sterling/dollar to move to $2.10 as investors reduce their dollar-denominated exposure," said Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas.

上周，美联储(Fed)主席本o伯南克(Ben Bernanke)几乎未对陷入困境的美元汇率施以援手。他在接受国会质询时，只字未提美元被低估。

The beleaguered US currency was hardly helped by Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve chairman, last week. Questioned by Congress, he declined any chance to say the dollar was undervalued.

Miller Tabak & Co策略师托尼o克里森兹(Tony Crescenzi)表示："（伯南克的前任）格林斯潘至少会说点什么，以表示他对美元汇率的关心，许多人认为，伯南克对美元的空洞回应中连这一点也没有。"

"[Predecessor Alan] Greenspan would at least say something about the dollar, showing he cared, which is something that many thought was absent in Bernanke's empty response on the dollar," said Tony Crescenzi, strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.

RBS Greenwich Capital首席国际策略师艾伦o拉斯金(Alan Ruskin)表示，伯南克可能受到这个看法的引导，即"讨论美元是最好不要触及的话题之一。"

Mr Bernanke may have been guided by the idea "talking about the dollar is one of those things best left untouched", said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.

美国财长汉克o保尔森(Hank Paulson)同样也对美元的疲软保持沉默。斯特拉祖鲁表示："你会有这样的感觉，即美国政府希望美元下跌。"

Official silence on the dollar's woes extends to Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary. "You get the sense the administration wants a weaker dollar," said Mr Strazzullo.

美国经济增长速度低于全球竞争对手，同时美国以外国家的利率不断上升，而美国国内利率保持不变，这些因素在很大程度上解释了美元的疲软。此外，外界对于美国信贷和按揭市场的担忧也对美元产生了影响。

A US economy growing more slowly than global rivals and interest rates rising outside the US while domestic rates remain on hold explain much of the dollar's weakness. The greenback is also suffering anxiety over US credit and mortgage markets.