2007年8月3日 IMF对全球经济依然乐观

The outlook for the global economy remains “very favourable” despite recent market volatility and concerns about the unfurling US subprime mortgage market crisis, according to John Lipsky, the IMF’s first deputy managing director.

利普斯基昨日在澳大利亚出席亚太经合组织(APEC)财长会议期间表示，IMF不会修改其对全球经济今年将增长5.2%的预期。亚太经合组织共有21个成员。

Speaking on the sidelines of a meeting in Australia of finance ministers from the 21 Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation economies, Mr Lipsky said yesterday the IMF would not revise its forecast that the world economy would grow 5.2 per cent his year.

他承认，由于能源价格高企、金融市场动荡，全球经济存在“下滑风险”。但他表示，高收益投资基金的投资者因为次级抵押贷款市场问题吃些苦头，也不应该太令人吃惊。

He acknowledged that there were “downside risks” to the global economy based on high energy prices and financial market volatility, but said it should not be a surprise if investors in high-return investment funds suffered from the subprime problems.

“现在，我们明白它们为什么收益高了，”利普斯基表示，“它已经造成一些痛楚了，人们对此不应感到震惊。”

“Now we see why [the funds] are high-return,” Mr Lipsky said. “It should not come as a shock it has caused some pain.’’

利普斯基补充指出，与最近股市走弱相比，全球信贷利差的不断扩大对经济前景的影响可能更为重要。他指出：“风险的再次集结……不一定会引起混乱。”

Mr Lipsky added that the widening of global credit spreads was arguably more important to the economic outlook than the recent weakness in equities and said “the realignment of risk?.?.?.?is not necessarily unsettling”.

当被问及日元疲弱对亚洲邻国出口竞争力的影响时（这也是本周APEC财长会议讨论的一个问题），利普斯基表示，IMF一直在关注日本，近日将发布评估。

Questioned about the effect of the weak Japanese yen on the export competitiveness of neighbouring Asian countries, a subject of discussion during this week’s Apec meetings, Mr Lipsky said the IMF had been looking at Japan and would release its assessment in the coming days.

IMF上周将其对全球经济增幅的预测上调了0.3个百分点，调高至5.2%，并表示，大型新兴市场国家（特别是中国、印度和俄罗斯）的经济增长更为强劲，已使全球经济前景更加光明。不过，IMF同时下调了美国的经济增长预测。

The IMF upgraded its world growth forecast last week by 0.3 percentage points to 5.2 per cent, saying stronger growth in big emerging market countries, particularly China, India and Russia, had brightened the economic outlook. It came despite a downgrade in projected growth in the US.

亚洲开发银行(Asian Development Bank)行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)昨日表示，他预计美国次级抵押贷款市场危机不会影响亚洲经济增长。亚开行在下个月发布最新经济展望时，可能会上调对亚洲地区的增长预测。主持本周APEC财长会议的澳大利亚财长彼得?科斯特洛(Peter Costello)表示，自10年前爆发危机以来，亚洲各国已经吸取了许多教训。

Haruhiko Kuroda, the Asian Development Bank president, said yesterday that he did not expect the US subprime crisis to damage Asian economic growth. The ADB is likely to increase its Asian region growth estimates when it publishes an economic update next month. Peter Costello, Australia’s treasurer and host of this week’s Apec meeting, said lessons had been learned since the Asia crisis 10 years ago.

“但如果认为这里没有其它方面的经济挑战，那将是愚蠢的想法。国际股市颇为震荡，外汇市场也出现波动，而油价也创下了新高，”他表示。“近日来我们已看到，遥远国家发生的事件可以对自己国家产生重大影响。”

“But you would be a fool if you thought there are no other economic challenges out there. You have got volatility on international stock markets. You have got volatility on currency markets and you have got record oil prices,” he said. “You have seen in recent days how events in far away places can affect your country in a significant way.”

麦格理银行(Macquarie Bank)的股价本周大幅下跌，因为这家澳大利亚最大的投行受到了美国次级抵押贷款市场危机的影响。

Shares in Macquarie Bank fell sharply this week as Australia’s largest investment bank was caught up in the effects of the US subprime crisis.

本周在库鲁姆召开的APEC财长会议，是9月份在悉尼召开的APEC领导人非正式会议的前奏。届时，美、中、俄、日和加及其它16个APEC成员的领导人将参加会议，讨论包括能源安全和气候变化在内的一系列议题。

The Apec meeting in Coolum this week is a prelude to an forum in Sydney in September, when leaders of the US, China, Russia, Japan and Canada and 16 other Apec economies will meet to discuss a range of issues including energy security and climate change.