2007年8月14日 亚洲经济体逼近“人口悬崖”

国际劳工组织(International Labour Organisation)称，未来10年，预计亚洲劳动力规模的增速将放缓，这将危及该地区增长最为迅速的经济体的产出增幅。

The rise in the size of Asia’s labour force is expected to slow over the next decade threatening output growth in some of the region’s fastest growing economies, according to the International Labour Organisation.

国际劳工组织在近日发表的一份报告中称，不均衡的人口增长水平、劳动力的不断老龄化以及就业从农村转向城市的巨大转变，对亚洲迅速增长的经济体构成了挑战。

Uneven rates of population growth, ageing workforces, and a huge shift in employment from rural areas to cities pose challenges for the region’s rapidly growing economies it says in a report to be published today.

到2015年前，亚洲劳动力数量预计将增加2.21亿，至20亿，因为伊朗、不丹、柬埔寨和巴基斯坦等国继续受益于处于“最佳工作年龄”人口比例的上升，这一年龄介于25岁至54岁之间。但这种“人口红利”(demographic dividend)的时间有限，因为在整个亚洲地区，0至15岁儿童以及15至24岁年轻人所占比例在不断下降。

Asia’s workforce is expected to increase by 221m to 2bn by 2015 as countries such as Iran, Bhutan, Cambodia and Pakistan continue to benefit from a rise in the proportion of “prime working-age” people, between 25 and 54. But the life of this “demographic dividend” would be limited with the proportion of children aged 0 to 15 and youth aged 15 to 24 declining across the whole of the region.

国际劳工组织警告称，新加坡、韩国和中国部分地区等较发达地区可能会更早触及“人口悬崖”。 The ILO warns that more developed regions such as Singapore, South Korea and parts of China are likely to hit the “demographic cliff” even earlier.

该组织称：“本10年末，在亚洲所有地区，65岁及65岁以上人口比例将大幅上升，而发达经济体的增幅最大。”

“At the end of the decade, there will be a marked increase in the share of the population aged 65 and above in every region, with the largest increases taking place in the developed economies,” it says.

到2015年，在一些“发达经济体”，预计将有四分之一以上的人口年龄超过65岁。在中国，计划生育政策“加速了这种人口过渡过程”。因此，中国的“老龄化速度将快于历史上其它任何国家”。在日本，自1999年以来，退休人口数量已超过新就业人口数量。

More than a quarter of the people in some “developed economies” are expected to be older than 65 by 2015. In China family planning policies had “accelerated the process of demographic transition”. As a result, the country was “ageing faster than any other nation in history”. In Japan the number of people retiring from the country’s workforce since 1999 had exceeded the number of new recruits.

尽管2000年至2006年，亚洲国内生产总值(GDP)平均年增幅高达6.3%——是全球其它地区的两倍以上，但该地区很多人仍将经历严重贫困。逾10亿人（占该地区劳动力的近62%）仍工作在“非正规经济”中。国际劳工组织称，该地区约9亿人每日生活费不到2美元，“其中，3.08亿人生活在每日生活费不足1美元的极度贫困状态之中。”

In spite of average annual GDP growth of 6.3 per cent between 2000 and 2006 – more than twice rates experienced in the rest of the world – many people in the region were still suffering from serious poverty. More than 1bn people, representing almost 62 per cent of the region’s labour force, were still working in the “informal economy”. Some 900m were living on less than US$2 a day and “308m of these living in extreme poverty on less than US$1 per day”, says the ILO.

雇主和政界人士所面临的问题包括：数以百万计、希望找到更高薪酬工作的人纷纷移民海外；越来越多的人从农村迁往城市，到2015年，预计亚洲城市人口将增加3.5亿，而农村人口预计仅增长1500万；收入不平等不断加剧；改善就业机会（特别是女性）越来越必要。

Problems facing employers and politicians include: increasing migration by millions seeking better paid work abroad; the growing movement of people from the land to cities, with the region’s urban population expected to grow by 350m by 2015, while the rural population is expected to rise by only 15m; rising income inequalities; and the need to improve job opportunities particularly for women.

为促进经济增长，对原材料和能源的需求将加大环境压力。国际劳工组织总干事胡安?索马维亚(Juan Somavia)表示：“有一点很明显：长期而言，像往常那样做事是不可持续的。亚洲正经历着前所未有的经济增长和社会发展。与此同时，环境压力、经济不安全、治理缺陷和收入分配不均等引发的脆弱性，对该地区未来的发展构成了威胁。”

The need for raw materials and energy to fuel growth was increasing environmental pressures. Juan Somavia, ILO director general, said: “One thing is clear: doing business as usual is not sustainable over the long term. Asia is experiencing unprecedented growth and development. At the same time, vulnerabilities arising from environmental pressures, economic insecurity, shortcomings in governance and unequal income distribution pose a threat to the region’s future development.”