2007年8月16日 全球企业领袖信心指数降至5年最低

Confidence among some of the world’s top business leaders has slumped to its lowest levels since June 2002, suffering from concerns about financial market volatility and mixed US economic data, according to an investment banking survey.

高盛信心指数(Goldman Sachs Confidence Index)这项截至8月份第一周的国际性调查，是根据首席执行官们对商业环境的评估编撰而成，被视为描述企业信心的重要指标。最新调查显示，继过去几个季度的乐观数据之后，企业首席执行官对今年第三季度前景的信心已大幅下降。

The Goldman Sachs Confidence Index, an international survey conducted until the first week of August, is based on chief executives’ assessments of business conditions and regarded as a leading indicator of corporate sentiment. The latest survey shows their outlook for the third quarter of the year has declined dramatically, after buoyant readings in the past few quarters.

今年第三季度全球商业前景总体读数为33，较第二季度的57大幅下降。

The headline reading for the global business outlook for the third quarter stands at 33 – a steep fall from the reading of 57 in the second quarter.

50的读数，标志着认为商业环境正在改善的首席执行官与持相反观点的首席执行官之间的分水岭。高盛是在金融市场震荡的头两周期间展开的此项调查。

A score of 50 marks the dividing line between executives who think conditions are improving and those who feel they are worsening. Goldman ran the survey during the first two weeks of turmoil in financial markets.

不过，信心骤降尚未对交易意愿构成影响，某些行业的一些首席执行官还认为，信贷危机是他们在出价方面超越其私人股本竞争对手的一个机会，因为信贷危机迫使这些私人股本退出竞购。

However, the collapse of confidence has not yet affected the willingness to do deals and several chief executives in several sectors see the credit crunch as an opportunity to outbid their private equity rivals as it forces them to the sidelines.

高盛资深全球经济学家桑德拉?劳森(Sandra Lawson)表示：“近期前景存在大量不确定性，但如果信贷危机对私人股本造成影响，这可能也为企业带来一个机遇，特别是在交易价格下降的时候。”

“There is an enormous amount of uncertainty about the outlook in the near-term, but if the credit shock hurts private equity, it may also provide an opportunity for corporates, especially as deal multiples come down,” said Sandra Lawson, senior global economist at Goldman Sachs.

本月，由于私人股本集团CVC Capital Partners未能为其收购交易提供融资，帝国烟草公司(Imperial Tobacco)以高价成功购得法国和西班牙合资的阿塔迪斯烟草公司(Altadis)。3月份，在竞购阿克苏(Akzo)旗下制药公司Organon Biosciences时，美国制药集团先灵葆雅(Schering Plough)击败了私人股本公司。

This month, Imperial Tobacco outbid CVC Capital Partners to buy Altadis, the Franco-Spanish tobacco company, after the private equity group was unable to finance its deal. In March, Schering Plough, the US pharmaceuticals group, beat private equity firms in the auction for Organon Biosciences, an Akzo-owned pharmaceutical unit.

瑞银集团(UBS)欧洲并购业务主管汤姆?库珀(Tom Cooper)表示，目前企业应处于从此次市场调整中获益的最有利地位。他表示：“特别是对于投资级的企业来说，这可能是一次机会。与私人股本不同，战略性买家能够通过自有资金来弥补融资缺口。”

Tom Cooper, European head of M&A at UBS said corporate buyers should be best placed to benefit from this correction. “There could be a window of opportunity for investment grade buyers in particular. Unlike private equity, strategic buyers can bridge funding gaps with their own paper,” he said.

信心指数还显示，厂房和设备方面的资本支出数据几乎没有变化。这方面的资本支出是利润和经济增长的传统动力。

The confidence index also showed little change in the readings for capital spending on factories and equipment – the traditional engine of profit and economic growth.

尽管全球信心指数从第二季度的68降至第三季度的57，但美国首席执行官们预计商业环境将略有改善。

Although the global reading has fallen from 68 in the second quarter to 57 in the third, US chief executives expected conditions to improve slightly