2007年8月28日 次贷危机改变全球利率前景

Mounting fears about the potential impact on economic growth from the turbulence in global capital markets are prompting a dramatic reassessment of the outlook for world interest rates.

“资本市场目前的动荡已进入一个新的重要阶段，对美国和全球经济的风险正在显现，”瑞银集团(UBS)经济学家拉里?夏德威(Larry Hatheway)表示。“如果货币政策及时做出回应，则可以避免一次全球性硬着陆。”

“Ongoing tumult in capital markets has moved into a new and important phase where risks to US and world output are emerging,” says Larry Hatheway, economist at UBS: “Provided monetary policy responds in a timely manner, a global hard landing can be avoided.”

夏德威称，这种回应包括美国降息50个基点，英国、欧元区和日本降息25个基点，以平衡全球股市的调整及商业领域资本成本的上升（商业领域资本成本有可能减缓投资支出）。

According to Mr Hatheway, that response involves cutting US interest rates by 50 basis points and reducing rates in the UK, eurozone and Japan by 25bp to offset the correction in global equity markets and the increased cost of capital for the business sector, which could slow investment spending.

然而，多数分析人士认为，在调整利率前，决策者将会观望最近增加市场流动性举措的效果。

However, most analysts feel policymakers will wait to gauge the effects of recent liquidity boosts before moving rates.

本周公布的各种数据，将首次有机会评估最近信贷市场和股市的走弱对消费者信心的影响。

This week’s data releases will provide the first opportunity to assess how consumer sentiment has been affected by recent weakness in credit and equity markets.

预计美国8月份消费者信心数据将降至105.0。7月份，该数据曾达到112.6，为6年以来的最高水平，部分原因在于劳动力市场表现强劲。美国8月份消费者信心数据将于今天公布。

US consumer confidence data for August, due tomorrow, are expected to decline to 105.0 after hitting a six-year high of 112.6 in July – partly as a result of strength in the labour market.

油价的下降帮助提振了美国消费者信心指数，但房地产市场的持续走弱将继续影响消费者信心。

Lower petrol prices have helped US consumers but persistent weakness in the housing market will continue to weigh on sentiment.

美国6月份的消费者支出仅上升了0.1%，将于本周五公布的7月份数据将有助于评估这是否构成走弱趋势的一部分。市场普遍预测，7月份的消费者支出将上升0.4%，从而使同比增幅从5月份的5.2%降至4.6%。

US consumer spending managed only a marginal rise of 0.1 per cent in June and July’s data, due on Friday, will help to evaluate if this is part of a softer trend. The consensus forecast is for a rise of 0.4 per cent which would slow the year-on-year growth rate from 5.2 per cent in May to 4.6 per cent in July.

美国消费者支出前景走弱，乃是因为随着房地产市场进一步降温，资产增值抵押贷款市场出现了崩盘。消费者从美国公司的回购行动中得到的现金有所减少，将会加大家庭预算压力。

The softening in the outlook for US consumer spending is due to a collapse in mortgage equity withdrawal as the housing market slowdown has intensified. The pressure on household budgets looks set to be compounded by a slowdown in the cash delivered to consumers from buy-backs by the US corporate sector.

在美联储(Fed)青睐的通胀衡量指标于本周五公布之后，美国是否及早降息的前景可能会更为明朗一些。市场普遍预测，核心个人消费支出同比增速将略有加快，从6月份的1.9%升至2%。

Prospects for an early cut in US interest rates could be clearer after the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, due on Friday. The consensus forecast is for year-on-year growth in the core PCE to accelerate slightly to 2 per cent from 1.9 per cent in June.

德国将于本周二公布8月份Ifo商业环境调查，预计8月份的数据将从7月的106.4降至105.2。预计将于本周五公布的欧元区8月份商业信心指数将从7月份的111.0降至110.2，继续高于长期平均值100，与GDP约3%的增幅一致。

Germany’s Ifo business climate survey for August, due on Tuesday, is expected to weaken from 106.4 in July to 105.2. Eurozone business confidence for August, due on Friday, is expected to fall from 111.0 in July to 110.2, remaining above its long-run average of 100, consistent with gross domestic product growth of about 3 per cent.