2007年9月6日 美元吸引力并未消失

As the dollar has fallen over the past few years, reports of the diversification of holdings of US dollar assets by non-US investors have been rampant. The fate of the dollar and US asset values are in the balance, it is said.

从坊间传闻的角度看，中国和其它亚洲央行对其外汇资产进行多元化，包括伊朗要求日本以日元而非美元支付石油款的做法，助长了这些报道。

From an anecdotal point of view, diversification of holdings by the Chinese and other Asian central banks into other currencies, including Iran asking Japan to pay for oil in yen rather than dollars, helps fuel these reports.

此外，与伦敦和亚洲投资者的讨论也显示，他们正在逐渐降低美元资产的比重，并认为，美国投资组合被高估，其增长率低于全球其它地区。

Also, discussions with London and Asian-based investors reveal a chronic underweighting of US assets and the belief that US portfolio investments are overvalued and offer a lower growth rate relative to the rest of the world.

然而，事实是这样吗？外国投资者真的已经远离美国资产了吗？如果真是这样，美国如何为其巨额经常账户赤字融资呢？

But, what is the truth? Have foreigners really stepped away from US assets and if so, how is the US to finance its huge current account deficit?

从经济学角度看，数字必须平衡。如果说有什么变化的话，外国投资者不但没有停止购买美国资产，反而增加了购买速度。购买厂房设备和收购美国企业的外国直接投资(FDI)都接近历史高点。

Well, in economics, numbers have to balance. Not only have foreigners not stopped buying US assets, if anything, they have increased the pace of purchases. Foreign direct investment, in both plant and equipment or in purchasing US companies is close to an all-time high.

此外，组合投资也较过去几年的水平有所上升。美国投资吸引力已经消失的说法言过其实了。

In addition, portfolio investments have increased from levels of the past few years. The demise of the attractiveness of US investments has been well overstated.

我们看一下以下的数据。今年6月，外国私人投资者净购买950亿美元美国资产。今年到目前为止，外国私人投资者对美国资产的净购买额较去年增长了17%。

Let’s look at the numbers. In June of this year, for example, foreign private investors had bought a net $95bn of US assets and for the year to date, net purchases have increased by 17 per cent over last year.

外国投资者购买美国股票的金额较去年增加了近58%。另一方面，外国投资者购买美国国债的数量较2004年前5个月（近期的峰值水平）下降了一半。

Purchases of US equities by foreigners increased almost 58 per cent over the last year. On the negative side, purchases of Treasury securities are down by half from the first five months of 2004, the recent peak level.

然而，真正的行动似乎在外国直接投资方面。

But, the real action appears to be in foreign direct investment (FDI).

数据显示，2006年流向美国的外国直接投资约为1750亿美元，为有史以来第4高水平。超过2006年水平的3个年份是科技泡沫时期的1998年、1999年和2000年。

Figures for 2006 show outlays for foreign direct investment in the US to be approximately $175bn, the fourth-highest amount on record. The only three years that surpassed 2006 were 1998, 1999, and 2000, in the middle of the tech bubble.

数据服务提供商汤姆森金融(Thomson Financial)预计，去年已宣布的交易数量增长了36%。最大的买家是欧洲人，原因或许是欧元和英镑的坚挺。

Thomson Financial services estimated that announced deals increased 36 per cent last year. The largest buyers have been the Europeans, probably due to the strength of the euro and the British pound.

去年，美国近70%的外国直接投资来自欧洲，而在2007年上半年，在230亿美元的外国直接投资中，有65%来自欧洲。

Last year, almost 70 per cent of FDI originated in Europe, while in the first quarter of 2007, 65 per cent of the $23bn of FDI came from Europe.

这些投资流向了哪些行业呢？今年第一季度的初步数据显示，制造业吸引了全部投资的近70%，其中，原生金属和加工金属、机械以及电脑和电子产品是最大受益者。相比之下，金融行业则是投资流出行业。

Into which industries is all this investment going? Preliminary data for the first quarter indicate that manufacturing received almost 70 per cent of the total, with primary and fabricated metals, machinery, and computer and electronic products being the big beneficiaries. The financial industry, in contrast, has seen an outflow of investment.

我们认为，上述数字显示，美国经济处于健康状态。流向美国的投资继续抵消着巨额经常账户赤字。

We believe the data show a healthy picture of the US economy. Investment in the US continues to offset a large current account deficit.

过去2年的外国直接投资构成说明，这些投资的目的是获取回报，表明投资者（尤其是欧洲投资者）坚信，他们可以从美国资产上获得有吸引力的长期回报。

Its make-up in the past two years suggests that these investments are being made for return reasons and shows a significant belief, especially by European investors, that they will be able to achieve attractive rates of return on US assets over the long term.

最近的美国次级抵押贷款风波对未来的资金流有何影响？

How will the recent problems with US subprime mortgages affect future flows?

目前很难判断，但近来美元走强，显然预示着资金正流入美国。

At this point it is hard to tell, but the recent strength of the dollar portends well for flows into the US.

不过，近来的这些投资对外国投资者是否有利可图，或者他们是否会像上世纪80年代末日本投资者那样，成为一个高位买进的经典案例，一切只有等时间来证明。

Only time will tell, though, whether these recent investments will turn out to be profitable for foreign buyers or whether they will turn out to be a classic case of buying at the top, as Japanese investors did in the late 1980s.

从数据中可以看出的是，外国投资者迄今并未舍弃美国经济，也没有证据显示他们准备撤离这个全球最大的经济体。

What is clear from the data is that foreigners have not deserted the US economy so far and no evidence suggests that they are on the verge of turning away from the largest economy in the world.

本文作者是美国基金管理公司Nicholas-Applegate的首席投资官。

Horatio Valerius is chief investment officer of Nicholas-Applegate, a US-based fund manager