2007年9月21日 亚洲股市收复“失地”

Asian equities were at the centre of a global financial storm 10 years ago. This time they are riding out the market turbulence far better than developed markets.

这种抗跌性昨日表现得十分明显，当日不包括日本在内的摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)亚太指数上探507.618点的历史高点，超过了7月24日创下的506.239点的前期高点。该指数收复了7月份和8月份的“失地”，今年年初以来累计上涨27.7%。

The resilience was apparent yesterday when Morgan Stanley Capital International’s index of Asia-Pacific stocks excluding Japan hit a record high of 507.618, surpassing the previous peak of 506.239 from July 24. All the losses sustained in July and August have been recouped, leaving the index up 27.7 per cent since the beginning of the year.

驻香港的摩根士丹利亚太证券研究团队负责人马尔科姆?伍德(Malcolm Wood)表示，过去数周市场的恢复是“典型的V型形态”。他表示，在8月份，亚洲股市在18个交易日内下跌了18.6%。但它们在仅仅23个交易日内就收复了“失地”，相比之下，在过去20年亚洲股市的多次调整中，恢复至前期高点的平均时间为60个交易日。

The recovery of the past few weeks has been “extremely V-shaped”, says Malcolm Wood, who leads the Asia-Pacific equity research team for Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. During August, he said, Asian shares dropped by 18.6 per cent in 18 days But they have recovered those losses in just 23 trading days, compared with an average of 60 days to recover past peaks during Asian corrections over the past 20 years.

伍德表示：“在过去20年里，月度同比涨幅只有4次超过了20%，最后一次是在1998年底。”

“There have been only four periods in the last 20 years when the month-on-month returns have been greater than 20 per cent,” Mr Wood said. “The last was at the end of 1998.”

涨幅最大的一直是中国内地市场。深圳综合指数(Shenzhen Composite index)自年初以来累计上涨173%，而上证综合指数(Shanghai Composite)则上涨了104%。

The biggest gains have been in mainland China. The Shenzhen Composite index has risen by 173 per cent since the beginning of the year, and the Shanghai Composite is up by 104 per cent.

亚太地区市场的表现为何如此强劲呢？

What explains the region’s robust performance?

英国安本资产管理亚洲公司(Aberdeen Asset Management Asia)驻新加坡的董事总经理休?扬(Hugh Young)表示：“亚洲拥有现金，而西方国家则背负债务。但市场反弹幅度可能过大，容易受到新一轮动荡的冲击，不过最终亚洲的基本面因素将决定亚洲的表现。 ”

“Asia has the cash and the west the debt,” says Hugh Young, managing director of Aberdeen Asset Management Asia in Singapore. “But the market rebound may be too sharp and vulnerable to another bout of jitters, although ultimately Asian fundamentals will see Asia perform.”

与十年前相比，目前亚洲企业的状况要好得多。日益增多的现金流为增长提供了支撑。利润水平也不断上升。整个地区的经济状况也要好得多。

Asian firms are in much better condition than 10 years ago. Growth is sustained by rising cash flows. And profits are rising. Economic conditions throughout the region are also much better.