2007年10月23日 IMF总裁警告：美元可能暴跌

The dollar hit a record low against the euro yesterday as Rodrigo Rato, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, warned that the US currency could suffer a dramatic fall that would shake confidence in American assets.

这位即将卸任的IMF总裁表示，美元的贬值一直比较有序，但他警告称，美元存在遭遇失控抛售的风险，而这种抛售将会影响全球主要经济体的增长。

The outgoing IMF managing director said the depreciation of the dollar had been orderly, but cautioned there was a risk of a runaway sell-off that would hit growth in major economies.

美元无序下跌的风险在上周末期间似乎有所增加，因为IMF此前未能就内部改革达成一致。这一改革本将为IMF在管理全球经济失衡中发挥更大作用创造条件。

The risks of a disorderly fall in the US currency appeared to increase over the weekend after the IMF failed to agree internal reforms that would have set the stage for it to take on a greater role managing global economic imbalances.

“截至目前，汇率的变动一直比较有序，并且符合基本面。但存在美元暴跌的风险，这种暴跌可能是因为投资者对美元资产失去信心，而它本身也可能促使投资者对美元资产失去信心，”拉托表示。

“Up to now, movements in exchange rates have been orderly and in line with fundamentals. But there are risks that an abrupt fall in the dollar could either be triggered by, or itself trigger, a loss of confidence in dollar assets,” Mr Rato said.

美国财政部长汉克?保尔森(Hank Paulson)表示，IMF需要加大力度，更有效地监督成员国的汇率政策。他补充称，这对IMF来说是个“定义问题”。

Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, said the IMF needed to press on with efforts to make its surveillance of member country exchange rate policies more effective, adding it was a “defining issue” for the fund.

他表示：“IMF职员需要挽起袖子，深入分析，拿出判断。如果没有实实在在的汇率监督、治理和管理，改革就是一句空话。”

“IMF staff need to roll up their sleeves, undertake thorough analysis and put forward their judgments. Without meaningful exchange rate surveillance, governance and management, reform will ring hollow,” he said.

在上周末期间，保尔森与七国集团(G7)其它国家的财长们一道，敦促中国允许人民币更快升值。

Mr Paulson joined finance ministers from the Group of Seven most advanced economies over the weekend in urging China to let its renminbi appreciate more rapidly.

一些决策者还担心，美元的贬值会不成比例地为欧元和加元等货币吸收，而包括人民币在内的亚洲货币却不会受到太大影响。

Some policymakers also expressed concern that the fall in the value of the US dollar was being disproportionately absorbed by currencies such as the euro and Canadian dollar, rather than Asian currencies, including the renminbi.

拉托警告称，这种趋势可能会阻碍全球经济增长，助长这些国家的民粹主义经济政策。他补充道，全球经济可能处在一个“转折点”。

Mr Rato warned that this trend could hamper growth and fuel support for populist economic policies in these countries, adding that the global economy could be at an “inflection point”.

他表示，在那些实施灵活汇率制的国家（包括欧元区），汇率的上升可能会影响他们的经济增长前景，而在这种情况下，来自贸易保护主义者的压力会变得更大。

He said there was “a risk that exchange rate appreciation in countries with flexible exchange rates – including the euro area – could hurt their growth prospects, and that in these circumstances protectionist pressures could worsen”.