2007年10月24日 中国需求将推动铁矿石价格大幅飙升

The steel industry is braced for an increase of up to 50 per cent in the contract price of iron ore next year as a result of strong demand from China and lagging supply, industry executives and analysts have warned.

矿业公司正在艰难地提高全球最大铁矿石出口国澳大利亚的产出，而中国国内开采的铁矿石质量未能改善。另外，印度政府已对铁矿石征收出口关税，以保证本国钢铁行业的充足供应。

Mining companies are struggling to increase iron ore output in Australia, the world’s biggest exporter, while the quality of Chinese domestic iron ore production fails to improve. In addition, India’s government has imposed export tariffs to keep its local steel industry well supplied.

过去一年，铁矿石现货市场价格已上涨高达145%。除去运费成本，印度铁矿石现货价格本周已飙升至每吨130美元，大大高于一年前的53美元。澳大利亚和巴西的现货价格分别上涨了39%和71%。

The iron ore spot market has already seen price increases of up to 145 per cent over the past year. Excluding freight costs, Indian spot prices have surged this week to $130 a tonne, up from $53 a tonne a year ago. Australian and Brazilian spot prices have jumped 39 and 71 per cent respectively.

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)驻伦敦金属分析师丹?史密斯(Dan Smith)表示，铁矿石现货市场通常是预示潜在供需平衡的良好指标，为合同谈判奠定了基础。

Dan Smith, a metal analyst at Standard Chartered in London, said the spot market was generally a good indicator of underlying supply and demand balances, and provided the basis for the contract negotiations.

史密斯补充称：“由于现货市场的供应变得更为紧张，钢铁制造商目前似乎处于弱势。”他预测铁矿石价格将上涨50%。

“With the spot market getting even tighter it seems that steel makers are in a weak position,” added Mr Smith, who forecast an increase of 50 per cent.

铁矿石价格可能大幅上涨之际，美国和欧洲的经济增长正日益放缓。但国际货币基金组织(IMF)称，中国和其它亚洲新兴国家将继续迅速扩张。

The prospect of a strong price rise comes against the backdrop of slowing growth in the US and Europe. But China and other Asian emerging countries are set to continue rapid expansion, says the International Monetary Fund.

以中国宝钢(Baosteel)为首的钢铁制造商与矿业公司之间的谈判将于未来两周启动，谈判内容是从2008年4月开始为期一年的铁矿石长期合同价格。

The negotiations between the steelmakers, led by Baosteel of China, and the mining companies are set to start in the next two weeks and cover the price for long-term contracts for the year starting in April 2008.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)已将2008年铁矿石价格涨幅预期上调至50%，“以反映异常紧张的市场供应”。美林(Merrill Lynch)和麦格理银行(Macquarie Bank)也预测铁矿石价格将上涨50%。JP摩根(JPMorgan)预期的涨幅为25%至30%。

Morgan Stanley has raised its forecast to a 50 per cent rise in iron ore prices for 2008 “to reflect an exceptionally tight market”. Merrill Lynch and Macquarie Bank also forecast a 50 per cent increase while JPMorgan forecasts a 25-30 per cent rise.