2007年10月30日 人民币升值压力增大

China is facing increasing pressure to allow its currency to appreciate faster, a senior central bank official says, because of the combination of falling US interest rates and the rising cost of money at home.

中国人民银行行长助理易纲在上周末北京举行的一个论坛上发表讲话，将今年中国五次上调利率以应对通胀，与美国利率在次贷危机之后所面临的下行压力进行了对比。

Yi Gang, an assistant governor of the People’s Bank of China, speaking at a forum in Beijing at the weekend, contrasted China’s five rate rises this year, to fight inflation, with the downward pressure on US rates in the wake of the subprime crisis.

《中国证券报》(China Securities Journal)报道称，易纲表示：“在美联储降息、中国加息的共同作用下，人民币升值压力进一步增大。”

“With the simultaneous influence of the Fed’s rate cuts and China’s rate hike, the pressure for the renminbi to appreciate is further rising,” said Mr Yi, according to the China Securities Journal.

长时间以来，人民币升值步伐缓慢，一直是美国抱怨的对象。而最近以来，欧洲政治家们也表示，这个问题扭曲了中国的经济规模，为出口提供了补贴。

The slow pace of the currency’s appreciation is the target of longstanding complaints from the US, and more recently Europe, whose politicians say it distorts China’s economy and subsidises exports.

自2005年7月中国放弃人民币盯住美元以来，人民币兑美元的升值幅度仅为10%。同期内，人民币兑欧元汇率有所下跌，在贸易加权的基础上，人民币汇率几乎没变。

The renminbi has risen by only about 10 per cent against the US dollar since China broke its currency’s peg with the greenback in July 2005. Over the same period it has fallen against the euro and barely moved on a trade-weighted basis.

中国一直通过用人民币购买进入本国的美元的方式，来抵御升值压力，之后再通过出售央行票据，将本地资金抽离金融体系，这一过程被称之为“冲销”。

China has been able to resist pressure for appreciation by buying the dollars coming into the country with renminbi, and then draining the local funds out of the system by selling central bank bills, a process known as sterilisation.

不过，对于中国政府而言，中、美利率的趋同效果，可能使得上述操作成为一种赔钱的做法。

However, the convergence of US and Chinese interest rates threatens to turn that into a loss-making proposition for Beijing.

目前美国联邦基金利率为4.75%，预计本周可能下调至少25个基点。3月期票据利率约为4% 。

The federal funds rate in the US is now 4.75 per cent, with expectations of a cut of at least 25 basis points this week. Three-month bills are about 4 per cent.

中国9月初卖出的银行票据利率为3.32%，较年初的2.8%有所上升。多数分析人士预计，未来数月，中国将至少加息一次，有可能加息两次。

China offered 3.32 per cent for bank bills sold in early September, which is up from 2.8 per cent at the start of the year. Most analysts expect Chinese rates to rise at least once and possibly twice in coming months.

华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics) 的尼古拉斯?拉迪表示，如果目前的趋势持续下去，数月之内，负责管理中国外汇储备的央行机构实际上可能蒙受损失。

Nicholas Lardy, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said the central bank agency that managed China’s reserves could in a matter of months be actually losing money, if current trends continued.

“与他们以往的情况相比，那会是一个戏剧性的变化。”

“That would be a dramatic change from where they have been in the past.”