2007年11月7日 油价金价再创新高

Crude oil and gold prices surged to fresh highs yesterday amid renewed dollar weakness as investors sought refuge from a second wave of credit turmoil.

西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)大幅上涨逾3美元，创下每桶97.07美元的名义高点，交易员警告称，如果本周美国原油库存数据较上周又有下降，油价最早可能于今日试探每桶100美元的水平。

West Texas Intermediate jumped more than $3 to a nominal record of $97.07 a barrel and traders warned it might test the $100-a-barrel level as soon as today if US crude oil inventories show another weekly decline.

美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration)一份看涨的报告推动了油价上涨，报告称“紧张的基本面因素”将继续推高油价。能源情报署是美国能源部(Department of Energy)的统计机构。

The price jump was helped by a bullish report from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the US Energy Department, warning that “tight fundamentals” would continue to push up oil prices.

能源情报署预测原油价格“在未来数月内将超过每桶80美元”，在2008年将维持在每桶75美元以上，因为“全球原油市场可能仍将处于紧张状态。”该机构表示，石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称欧佩克)需要在目前每日增产50万桶的基础上，再增产70万桶，从而使市场维持平衡状态，直到明年第一季度。

The EIA forecast that crude oil prices would “exceed $80 per barrel over the next several months” and trade above $75 a barrel in 2008 as “global oil markets will likely remain stretched.” It said the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would need to add another 700,000 barrels a day on top of its current production increase of 500,000 b/d to balance the market through the first quarter of 2008.

针对原油价格在1年内超过每桶100美元的看涨期权价格飙升至每桶4.15美元，较10月底上涨近70%。

The cost of using options contracts to insure against crude oil trading at $100 in a year’s time surged to $4.15 per barrel, up almost 70 per cent since the end of October.

在原油价格上涨和美元不断走软的共同作用下，黄金价格升至824.3美元/盎司的28年高点，仅略低于1980年1月份850美元/盎司的历史高点。

The combination of strong crude oil prices and a weakening dollar boosted gold prices to a fresh 28-year high of $824.3 an ounce, just below its all-time high of $850 reached in January 1980.

贵金属交易员们表示，投资者在增持黄金——没有人卖出。Dresdner Kleinwort驻伦敦的贵金属业务主管大卫?赫尔姆斯(David Holmes)表示，金价升至每盎司850美元的“可能性很大。”

Precious metals traders said investors were adding to their gold positions – no one was selling. David Holmes, head of precious metals at Dresdner Kleinwort in London, said a rise to $850 was “very much on the cards”.

瑞银集团(UBS)驻伦敦的贵金属策略主管约翰?里德(John Reade)将其1个月期金价预测定为“不可避免的”每盎司850美元。

John Reade, head of metals strategy at UBS in London, upgraded its one-month gold forecast to an “inevitable” $850 an ounce.