2007年11月8日 油价昨日逼近100美元大关

Crude oil jumped to within striking distance of $100 a barrel yesterday as the US dollar tumbled to records lows, prompting fresh fears of a resurgence of global inflation.

美联储(Fed)理事弗雷德里克?米西金(Frederic Mishkin)在谈到价格上涨时警告，各国央行需“确保这不会蔓延成长期的通胀影响”，但他同时表示，当局也不应对短期数据做出过度反应。 Responding to the price rise, Frederic Mishkin, US Federal Reserve governor, warned that central banks needed to “make sure that it does not spill over into long-run inflation impacts” but said authorities should not overreact to short-term figures.

Bank of New York Mellon分析师西蒙?德里克(Simon Derrick)表示：“投资者对于全球（特别是美国）通胀不断加剧的担忧显然在上升。”

Simon Derrick, analyst at Bank of New York Mellon, said: “Concerns among investors are clearly growing about rising inflation globally and in the US in particular.”

在出现上述担忧之际，欧洲大陆及英国的央行今日召开会议，考虑T利率政策问题。目前，由于第二轮信贷动荡的冲击，经济增长正在放缓。

The concerns come as central banks in continental Europe and the UK meet today to consider interest rate policy amid slowing economies hit by a second wave of credit turmoil.

全球基准的西德克萨斯中质原油(West Texas Intermediate)升至每桶98.62美元的名义创纪录高点，自1月份以来涨幅近60%，原因是供应紧张、需求强劲、库存量不断下降以及投资者押注美元进一步走软。

West Texas Intermediate crude, the global benchmark, rose to a nominal record of $98.62 a barrel – up almost 60 per cent since January – propelled by tight supply, robust demand and falling inventories, as well as investors betting on more dollar weakness.

此后，原油价格涨势有所停顿，因数据显示美国原油库存的降幅低于预期水平，在市场中引发了一些获利抛盘。

Crude prices stalled their rally later as data showed that US oil inventories declined less than feared last week, prompting some profit taking.

不过，通胀方面的担忧有所加剧，因两大主要全球机构就原油及食品价格的未来走势发出了警告。

But inflationary fears were aggravated by warnings from two leading global bodies on the future of crude and food prices.

国际能源机构(IEA)表示，根据目前的趋势，不能排除在2015年前出现“涉及油价暴涨”的原油供应危机的可能性。IEA是西方国家的能源监管机构。

The International Energy Agency, the western countries’ energy watchdog, said a crude oil supply side crunch before 2015, “involving an abrupt escalation in oil prices”, cannot be ruled out under current trends.

该机构首席经济学家法提赫?比罗尔(Fatih Birol)警告：“我们能源体系的车轮可能会放慢。”

Fatih Birol, IEA chief economist, warned: “Our energy system’s wheels may fall off.”

与此同时，联合国粮农组织(Food and Agriculture Organisation)表示，在今年屡创新高后，2008年全球食品价格可能仍将保持高位。该机构表示，食品供应链中的农业大宗商品价格将推升零售价格，从而引发市场“对于食品价格上涨广泛、普遍的担忧。”

At the same time, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation said global food prices were likely to remain high in 2008, after record highs this year. It said agricultural commodity prices in the food supply chain would raise retail prices causing “a widespread and commonly shared concern about food price inflation”.