2007年11月20日 转学去剑桥

亲爱的经济学家：

Dear Economist,

我不知道在我A-levels课程的最后一年转校是否值得。我会到一个更好的地方生活（剑桥，我现在是在多佛），得到更高的奖学金。我可能会拥有更好的住宿条件、更自由的空间，并将遇到兴趣各不相同的人。但是，这值得我冒考不上大学或在A-levels课程中获得较低分数的风险吗？请帮我解决这个两难选择吧。

I am in doubt whether it is worth changing school for my last year of A-levels. I would be living in a much better place (Cambridge, whereas I am now in Dover) and getting more tuition. I am likely to have better accommodation, more freedom and will meet people with diverse interests. But is it worth the risk of not getting into university or getting lower grades on my A-levels?Please help me to solve this dilemma.

GP，多佛

GP, Dover

亲爱的GP：

Dear GP,

让我们重新梳理一下这个假设的两难困境。你正在考虑迁去一个似乎在各个方面（包括学术方面）都更好的地方。然而，由于你意识到存在某种风险，你犹豫了。

Let us run through this supposed dilemma again. You are considering a move to a place that appears to be better in every dimension, including the academic one. Yet you are hesitant because of a perceived risk.

我很想建议你去向心理医师咨询，而不是经济学家。幸运的是，所谓的行为经济学家将经济学家和心理学家最优秀的品质结合起来了。任何行为经济学家都能迅速诊断出，你是一个“禀赋效应”(endowment effect)的受害者。

I am tempted to recommend you consult a shrink rather than an economist. Fortunately, so-called behavioural economists combine the best qualities of economist and psychologist. And any behavioural economist would quickly diagnose that you are a victim of the “endowment effect”.

“禀赋效应”是一种非理性偏好，即珍惜你拥有的东西，而不是去改变它。选择你熟悉的东西。

The endowment effect is an irrational preference to keep what you have rather than switch. Better the devil you know and all that.

为揭示这种效应，专家设计了一个典型实验，给参加这个实验的参与者一份小礼物。然后，邀请参与者去交换礼物。无论原来的礼物是什么，或者交换的礼物是什么，人们总是非理性地不愿意交换礼物。

A typical experiment designed to reveal the effect would give participants a small gift for participating in the experiment. Later, the participants would be invited to swap the gift for an alternative. No matter what the original gift was, or what the alternative is, people, irrationally, are reluctant to make the swap.

你留恋多佛低于标准的住宿条件和不足的奖学金，这明显是非理性的。赶快去剑桥吧。当然，你可能会犯错，但犯错的风险不是不行动的借口。 Your attachment to substandard lodgings and scant tuition in Dover is clearly irrational. Move to Cambridge at once. You may be wrong, of course, but a risk of error is no excuse for inaction.