2007年12月7日 英国央行降息25个基点

欧洲最大的两家央行之间的分歧越来越大：为应对全球信贷紧缩，英国央行(Bank of England)昨日决定下调利率；而欧洲央行(ECB)则表示，未来仍可能再次加息。

A gulf opened up between Europe’s two largest central banks yesterday after the Bank of England responded to the global credit squeeze by cutting interest rates while the European Central Bank indicated another increase was still on the agenda.

英国央行将主要利率下调0.25个百分点，至5.5%，反映出该央行对中期经济前景在最近几周变得暗淡的担忧。

The Bank of England cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 5.5 per cent, reflecting its concern that the medium-term economic outlook had darkened in recent weeks.

英国央行在声明中指出，金融市场环境日益恶化，“家庭和企业信贷供应趋紧”，可能危及经济增长，让通胀率远低于英国央行设定的2%的目标。

In a statement, it blamed deteriorating conditions in financial markets and “a tightening in the supply of credit to households and businesses” that threatened to depress growth and allow inflation to fall too far below the Bank’s 2 per cent target.

尽管英国央行仍然担心通胀率在未来数月可能上升，但它认为，更广泛经济领域面临的风险，证明放宽货币政策是正确之举。

Although the Bank was still worried about rising inflation over the next few months, it judged the risks to the wider economy justified the easing of monetary policy.

英国央行的分析与经合组织(OECD)经济学家相吻合。经合组织的经济学家昨日提出：“有迹象显示，英国的住宅市场已明显恶化，英国可能比大多数国家更容易受到金融动荡的影响”。

The Bank’s analysis matched that of economists from the Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development, who argued yesterday “the UK could be more vulnerable than most countries to the impact from financial turmoil and because of evidence that the housing market is turning sharply down”.

分析人士立即对英国央行的举措做出了反应——接受路透社(Reuters)调查的61位经济学家中，绝大多数人预计，到明年夏季，英国的利率将降至5%。

Analysts responded immediately to the Bank’s move, with the majority of 61 economists polled by Reuters predicting that rates would fall to 5 per cent by next summer.

不过，欧洲央行行长让-克劳德?特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)表示，全球信贷紧缩对实体经济的影响仍不明朗。

Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, said the impact on the real economy of the global credit squeeze remained unclear.

他坚称，欧洲央行没有完全放弃加息计划。在此前召开的欧洲央行理事会会议上，“一些”理事支持加息。欧洲央行目前的利率为4%。

He insisted the ECB had not jettisoned completely plans to raise interest rates from the current 4 per cent level, arguing that after a meeting of the ECB’s governing council that “some” members had favoured such a move.