2007年12月12日 6.9%：中国通胀率创11年新高

中国11月份的通胀率达到6.9%，创下11年新高。这一通胀水平将会坚定中国政府紧缩货币政策的决心，也许还会进一步推迟能源价格改革。

Chinese inflation reached an 11-year high of 6.9 per cent in November, a level that will harden Beijing’s resolve to tighten monetary policy and probably further delay energy price reform.

中国10月份的通胀率为6.5%。通胀上升主要是受食品价格上涨的驱动。11月份，食品价格较上年同期上涨18.2%，主要原因是猪肉短缺和全球饲料成本上涨。

The inflation rate, which hit 6.5 per cent in October, is driven primarily by food prices, which rose by 18.2 per cent from a year earlier, mainly because of a shortage of pigs and rising global feed costs.

不过，由于石油和煤炭价格上涨，不包括食品的基础通胀率(underlying inflation)也从10月份的1.1%提高到1.4%，为今年以来最大涨幅。

But underlying inflation was also up to 1.4 per cent from 1.1 per cent in October, – the sharpest rise this year – because of higher oil and coal prices.

包括水、电、煤气在内的公用事业价格上涨5.6%。

Utility prices, including water, electricity and gas, rose by 5.6 per cent.

中国经济学家指出，持续上升的通胀压力可能促使政府进一步要求银行控制贷款，同时也会继续上调利率和存款准备金率。存款准备金率是指银行必须缴存在央行的准备金占其吸纳存款的比例。

China economists said the continuing upward pressure on inflation was likely to prompt further government pressure on banks to control lending, as well as interest rate rises and increases in reserve ratios, the amount banks must keep on deposit with the central bank.

作为一系列抑制通胀措施的一部分，中国政府已经拒绝根据不断上升的全球成本提高燃油价格，而且还提高了对一些行业的燃油补贴。

The government has already refused to lift fuel prices in line with rising global costs, and has increased subsidies to some sectors for oil as part of an array of measures to restrain inflation.

未来12个月，预计中国还会让人民币更快升值，以努力修正经济失衡，减少对出口商的激励措施。昨天公布的数据显示，中国11月份的贸易顺差为263亿美元，仅比10月份271亿美元的创纪录水平略低一点。贸易顺差是中国经济流动性过剩的主要原因。

China is also expected to allow the renminbi to appreciate faster over the next 12 months in an effort to correct imbalances in the economy and reduce incentives for exporters. China’s trade surplus, a prime cause of excess liquidity in the economy, reached $26.3bn in November, only slightly lower than the record $27.1bn in October, according to figures released yesterday.

尽管向美国出口的增速已经放缓，但向欧洲、中东和其它市场的出口持续强劲增长，使得中国的贸易顺差依然保持在较高水平。

Although the rate of growth of exports to the US has slowed, continued powerful increases in sales to Europe, the Middle East and other markets have helped keep the surplus high.

中国最高经济协调部门表示，为了限制贸易顺差，明年可能会实行出口配额制度。这对全球钢铁贸易来说可能是一项重大举措。

In a potentially significant move for global trading in steel, China’s chief economic co-ordination ministry said it might impose quotas for exports next year as part of a raft of efforts to limit the trade surplus.

在今年头11个月里，钢铁出口较上年增长55%，对顺差扩大起到很大作用。近几个月来，由于实施了关税措施，中国的钢铁出口已经开始放缓。

Steel exports are up by 55 per cent year on year in the 11 months to November and have contributed significantly to the swelling surplus. They have began to slow in recent months because of tax imposts.

中国央行(PBoC)上周宣布，货币政策将从“稳定”和“适度从紧”转向“从紧”，主要是担心通胀以及可能出现的经济过热。

The People’s Bank of China announced last week that monetary policy would move from “stable” and “moderately tight” to “tight”, primarily because of concern over inflation and possible overheating.

中国央行行长周小川在北京召开的一次会议上表示，向“从紧”货币政策的转变将是一个渐进过程。

Zhou Xiaochuan, the PBoC governor, speaking at conference in Beijing, said the move to a tighter policy would be taken gradually.

中国今年已经5次提高利率、10次提高存款准备金率，但迄今为止，对经济增速和通胀都影响甚微。

China has lifted interest rates five times and reserve ratios 10 times this year, with little impact so far on either the pace of economic growth or inflation.