2007年12月19日 世行报告：中国经济规模“缩水”40%

世界银行(World Bank)本周公布的最新估计数据显示，中国和印度的经济规模比原来设想的低40%。

The economies of China and India are 40 per cent smaller than previously thought, according to new estimates published by the World Bank this week.

对146个经济体美元购买力的排名，是按照1000种商品和服务的价格计算的。世界银行表示，这是“迄今为止在衡量各国购买力平价方面做出的最广泛、最彻底的努力。”

The ranking of 146 economies by buying power in US dollars was based on the prices of 1,000 goods and services in what the World Bank described as “the most extensive and thorough effort ever to measure purchasing power parity across countries”.

购买力平价(PPP)——而非市场汇率——被视为衡量相对生活成本的更好尺度，因为它的衡量基础是各个家庭用本国货币所能购买的商品和服务。

PPP, rather than market exchange rates, is regarded as a better measure of the relative cost of living, since it is based on goods and services households can buy with their domestic currency.

最新PPP估计数据显示，中国人的财富减少了40%，占世界总产出的近10%。研究显示，中国仍是全球第二大经济体，但其人均国内生产总值(GDP)只有美国的9.8%。

The new PPP estimates show a 40 per cent drop in the wealth of the Chinese people, accounting for nearly 10 per cent of world output. China remains the world’s second-largest economy but, in terms of per capita gross domestic product, it is only 9.8 per cent of the size of the US, according to the research.

世界银行行长罗伯特?佐利克(Robert Zoellick)表示，他不会就最新估计数据“做出任何政策结论”。按最新数据，中国生活在世界银行设定的每日1美元贫困线下的人口增加了几亿人。

Robert Zoellick, the World Bank’s preseident said he was “not drawing any policy conclusions” about the new estimates, which suggest that there are hundreds of millions more Chinese living on the World’s Bank’s poverty line of less than $1 a day.

佐利克表示：“在依据这些统计数据做出结论时，我们必须小心谨慎。”但他补充道，这些数据“可以帮助中国领导人完善其开发工作”。 ”We must be careful about drawing conclusions about poverty from these statistics”, he said but added that the figures ”could help Chinese leaders refine their development work.”

不过，如果中国没有以前预想的那样富有，这可能意味着，那些将中国视为政治和经济威胁的美国政策制定者可以放松了。

Nevertheless, if China is less wealthy than previously thought, it could mean that those US policymakers who regard it as a political and economic threat, can relax.

例如，美国政府问责局(US Government Accountability Office)今年曾利用旧的估算数据报告称，按照购买力平价计算的中国经济规模最早可能在2012年就会超过美国。中国经济规模的调整数据显示，中国的军事或经济实力还要过很多年才能与美国匹敌。

For example, the US Government Accountability Office using the old estimates, reported this year that China’s economy in PPP terms would be larger than the US by 2012. The recalibration of China’s economy suggests it will be many more years yet before China can rival the US in military or economic terms.

世界银行表示，中国经济规模的收缩，是因为过去根据可靠度较低数据进行的估算，夸大了中国经济规模。这是中国首次参与世界银行的国际比较计划(International Comparison Program)，也是印度自1985年以来首次参与这一计划。

The World Bank said the shrinking of China’s economy was due to exaggerated estimates based on less reliable data in the past. It was the first time that China had participated in the World Bank’s International Comparison Program and the first time since 1985 that India had participated.

世界银行统计数据显示，印度的经济规模也缩减了40%，为全球第四大经济体，占世界产出的4%。

India’s economy also shrank by 40 per cent, according to the the tables, which ranked it the world’s fourth largest economy, accounting for 4 per cent of output.