2008年1月15日 亚开行行长：今年亚洲经济增长或将放缓

亚洲开发银行(ADB)行长黑田东彦(Haruhiko Kuroda)昨日表示，由于美国经济放缓和油价上涨，今年亚洲发展中经济体的增长可能放缓。

Growth in Asia’s developing economies is likely to slacken this year because of the US slowdown and higher fuel prices, the president of the Asian Development Bank said yesterday.

黑田东彦向英国《金融时报》表示，在亚开行计划于3月份发布的下一批预测中，对亚洲地区（包括中国，但不包括日本）经济增长的预期是“略低于”8%。

Haruhiko Kuroda told the Financial Times that the ADB’s next set of forecasts, due to be published in March, would put regional growth – including China but excluding Japan – at “slightly less’’ than 8 per cent.

相比之下，去年9月份亚开行将其对2008年亚洲地区经济增长预测从7.7%调高至8.2%，同时预计，由于亚洲地区对国际贷款的依赖程度降低，该地区将经受住信贷紧缩所引发的任何经济放缓的影响。

This compares with a forecast of 8.2 per cent in September, when the Asian lender raised its forecast for 2008 from 7.7 per cent and predicted that the region would weather any slowdown generated by the credit squeeze because of its reduced reliance on international lending.

亚开行对亚洲地区经济的观点日益悲观，证实了该行并不认可去年出现的一种理论：即亚洲各经济体的增长已与全球其它地区“脱钩”，即便面临美国经济衰退，该地区也能持续增长。

The ADB’s growing pessimism about the regional economy confirms that it has rejected the theory that emerged last year that Asian economies had “decoupled” from the rest of the world and could continue growing even in the face of a US recession.

黑田东彦发出上述警告之际，高盛(Goldman Sachs)将其对亚洲地区的增长预测从8.6%下调至8.3%。

Mr Kuroda’s warning came as Goldman Sachs lowered its growth forecast for the region to 8.3 per cent from 8.6 percent.

该行称此次下调预期“意味深长，但并非是灾难性的”，这表明西方国家对亚洲制造业产品需求下降，不太可能对市场产生重大影响。

The bank described the cut as “meaningful but not disastrous”, indicating that a fall in western demand for Asian manufactured goods was unlikely to have big consequences for markets.

但黑田东彦表示，亚洲通胀日益加剧，将成为“今年真正严重的问题”，要想对抗通胀，亚洲各国政府将必须取消或降低国内补贴，特别是燃油补贴。本月早些时候，油价一度突破每桶100美元大关。

However, Mr Kuroda said rising Asian inflation would be “a really serious issue this year”, which governments would have to confront by eliminating or reducing domestic subsidies, in particular for fuel after oil briefly breached $100 a barrel earlier this month.

黑田东彦不愿就具体某个国家置评，但他表示，即使亚洲许多国家政府或许利用其“相当稳健的财政状况”，以推迟进一步改革，但就更长期来看，补贴安排是“不可持续的”。

Mr Kuroda would not comment on specific countries but he said subsidy arrangements were “unsustainable’’ in the longer term, even if many Asian governments might use their “fairly sound fiscal position” to delay further reform.

近来，通胀加剧已在亚洲引发普遍反应，例如从越南的工厂罢工，到中国一些超市促销引发的踩踏事件等。 Higher inflation has recently triggered popular reaction in Asia ranging from factory strikes in Vietnam to stampedes for discounted items at some Chinese supermarkets.

高盛昨日还表示，“日本也正徘徊在经济衰退边缘”这一事实，将加剧美国需求不断走弱的影响。

Goldman Sachs also argued yesterday that the impact of weakening American demand would be exacerbated by the fact that “Japan is also teetering on the edge of recession’’.

但黑田东彦表示，日本将摆脱经济困境。他预计，由于下半年增长抬头，日本今年的经济增长率约为2%。

However, Mr Kuroda said his country would emerge from its economic difficulties. He predicted Japanese growth this year of about 2 per cent thanks to a pick-up in the second half.