2008年1月16日 美国经济数据拖低股市和美元

昨日最新数据显示，美国上月零售有所下降，处于困境的美国消费者开始紧缩支出的证据进一步增强。

Evidence that the embattled US consumer is starting to pull back on spending mounted yesterday after new data revealed that retail sales fell last month.

上述消息拖低了股市和美元，而债券价格则接近4年高点，投资者一度加大了对美联储(Fed)将在本月政策会议上降息高达75个基点的押注——不过美联储观察人士认为，降息50个基点的可能性更大。

The news sent stocks and the dollar tumbling, while bond prices approached four-year highs and investors briefly increased their bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates by as much as 75 basis points at its policy meeting this month – although Fed watchers think 50bp is more likely

标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)收盘下跌2.1%至1386.78点，接近去年3月份以来的最低收盘点位。欧洲股市则出现了自去年8月份以来的最大单日跌幅，而亚洲市场也面临压力。泛欧的富时Eurofirst 300指数(FTSE Eurofirst 300)下跌2.6%，至2006年10月以来的最低水平。在伦敦，富时100指数(FTSE 100)下跌190.1点至6025.6点，跌幅为3.1%，为去年8月以来的最低点位。自今年初以来，该指数跌幅接近7%。

The S&P 500 was down 2.1 per cent at 1,386.78, and set for its lowest close since March. European stocks suffered their worst one-day falls since last August, while Asia also came under pressure. The pan-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 index fell 2.6 per cent to its lowest level since October 2006. In London, the FTSE 100 index fell 190.1 points, or 3.1 per cent, to 6,025.6 – its lowest since August. The index has fallen nearly 7 per cent since the start of this year.

美国商务部称，经季节性因素调整后的12月份零售销售下降0.4%。不包括波动较大的汽车及零部件采购，销售的降幅也是0.4%，超出市场此前的预期。

Seasonally adjusted retail sales fell by 0.4 per cent in December, according to the commerce department. Excluding volatile purchases of automobiles and parts, sales were also down by 0.4 per cent, more than the market had expected.

去年10月和11月的销售数据均进行了向下修正，不过11月份的销售数据仍相当强劲。2007年全年的零售销售增速是5年来最慢的。

October and November sales were also both revised down, though the November figure remained very strong. Retail sales for all of 2007 grew at the slowest pace for five years.

上述销售数据发布前不久，美国发布了去年12月份就业报告。报告显示，失业率升至5%。

The sales data comes hard on the heels of the December jobs report, which showed unemployment jumped to 5 per cent.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席美国经济学家理查德?伯纳(Richard Berner)表示：“消费者正在退却。现在谈论崩溃还为时过早，但至少消费者已明显变得谨慎起来。”

Richard Berner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, said: “The consumer is retreating. It is too soon to say cracking, but the consumer is clearly turning cautious at the very least.”