2008年4月8日 人民币升值的期望

人民币这个全球“替罪羊”货币正在不断升值。2005年7月，中国将人民币汇率重新定在8.11元人民币兑1美元，如今，它距离7元大关已只有咫尺之遥。今年以来，人民币兑美元汇率升值近4%，2007年全年的升幅也有7%。中国政府是否打算放宽其反对人民币升值的传统立场呢？

The world’s favourite scapegoat currency is in the ascendant. China’s renminbi, which was re-valued at Rmb8.11/$1 in July 2005, is now within a whisker of Rmb7/$1. It has strengthened by some 4 per cent against the dollar so far this year, following a 7 per cent appreciation in the whole of 2007. Is Beijing relaxing its traditional opposition to a stronger currency?

并不完全是。以其它几乎所有主要货币衡量，人民币的表现似乎都相当疲弱。今年以来，与中国最大贸易伙伴的货币——欧元相比，人民币已贬值3%；人民币对日元的贬值幅度也达到4.4%。JP摩根(JP Morgan)的数据显示，按贸易加权水平衡量，人民币今年以来的升值幅度仅有0.5%。当然，人民币也许还会继续升值，特别是如果当地媒体的报道可以信赖的话。远期市场肯定也是这么预期的：人民币不可交割远期合约价格显示，市场预计人民币兑美元汇率今年将升值11.3%。

Not entirely. Measured against nearly any other currency you care to mention, renminbi performance looks feeble. So far this year it has depreciated by 3 per cent against the euro, the currency of China’s biggest trading partner, and 4.4 per cent versus the yen. On a trade-weighted basis, it has gained a mere 0.5 per cent, according to JP Morgan. Of course, there may be further catch-up to come, particularly if reports in local media are to be believed. Forward markets certainly expect as much: non-deliverable forwards imply appreciation of 11.3 per cent against the dollar this year.

这种信念的主要依据是中国通胀率的再次飙升，但它没有抓住一个关键点——中国2月份消费者价格指数较上年同期上涨8.7%的主要原因，是食品价格的不断上升。由于中国在食品方面的自给自足，人民币的升值将很难缓解这种局面。食品进口可能会增加，但不会达到足以影响货币政策的程度。

But this belief, predicated in large part upon China’s resurgent inflation, misses a key point. Consumer prices rose 8.7 per cent on a year-on-year basis in February largely due to rising food prices. A stronger currency would do little to mitigate this as China is largely self-sufficient in food. Food imports could rise, but not to the extent of shaping monetary policy.

要洞察货币升值的负面影响更不容易。今年头几个月，中国的出口增长有所放缓，但这既可能反映了人民币升值的影响，也可能反映的是中国取消出口退税、异常严重的冬季暴风雪及美国经济低迷的影响。考虑到这些因素，以及货币升值的有限益处，押注人民币的再次大幅升值，将是一种冒失的做法。

Discerning the negative impact of currency appreciation is trickier. Export growth slowed in the first couple of months of this year, but that is as likely to reflect the scrapping of export tax rebates, freak snowstorms and the US slowdown as a stronger renminbi. Given these other factors, and the limited usefulness of a higher currency, it would be bold to bet on another big revaluation.