2008年4月9日 IMF预计信贷危机造成近万亿美元亏损

国际货币基金组织(IMF)昨日表示，信贷危机可能给金融行业造成近1万亿美元的潜在亏损，并警告称，一级抵押贷款、商业房地产、杠杆贷款和消费金融将会出现更多亏损和减记。

The financial sector faces potential losses of nearly $1,000bn as a result of the credit crisis, the International Monetary Fund said yesterday, warning of further losses and writedowns on prime mortgages, commercial real estate, leveraged loans and consumer finance.

IMF称，按3月中旬的市场价格计算，亏损和减记总额可能达到约9450亿美元。其中略超过一半的损失将由银行承受，其余部分则落在保险公司、养老基金、对冲基金和其它投资者身上。

The IMF said total losses and writedowns would reach about $945bn, based on market prices in mid-March. Banks would suffer slightly more than half the total losses, with the rest falling on insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds and other investors.

IMF相信，各银行已对其大部分美国次级抵押贷款进行了必要的减记——已减记约1930亿美元，还需减记的仅有约800亿美元。但该组织警告，随着美国经济走软，苦难将波及其它贷款形式。

The IMF believes that banks have already taken most of the writedowns needed on US subprime loans – with about $193bn taken already and only about $80bn to come. But it warned that as the US economy weakened, pain was spreading to other forms of lending.

该组织货币事务及资本市场部门负责人杰米?卡如纳(Jamie Caruana)表示：“信贷的恶化已经升级，波及整个信贷领域。”

“The deterioration in credit has moved up and across the credit spectrum,” Jamie Caruana, head of monetary affairs and capital markets at the Fund said.

IMF在《全球金融稳定报告》(Global Financial Stability Report)中公布了以上估计数字。自美联储(Fed)和摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)对贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)实施拯救以来，市场一直较为乐观，而这份悲观报告对此提出了质疑。报告表示，自去年10月以来，“系统性风险已大幅上升”。

The estimate is set out in a gloomy Global Financial Stability Report, which challenges the more optimistic tone in the markets since the rescue of Bear Stearns by the Federal Reserve and JP Morgan Chase. The report says “systemic risks have risen sharply” since October.

卡如纳原为西班牙央行(Bank of Spain)行长。他对记者表示，贝尔斯登拯救行动“帮助降低了金融体系出现长尾事件(tail event)的可能性”——换言之，它降低了出现真正灾难性结果的可能性。

Mr Caruana, a former governor of the Bank of Spain, told reporters that the Bear rescue “helped to reduce the possibility of a tail event in the financial system” – in other words, it made a truly catastrophic outcome less likely.

但他表示：“资金压力仍然很大，金融机构的资产负债表压力依然存在。”

But he said “funding strains remain high and balance sheet pressures on financial institutions continue.”

卡如纳表示，“在评估金融系统的杠杆程度方面存在集体失误”，而资产负债表压力可能限制各银行的放贷能力。

Mr Caruana said there had been a “collective failure to appreciate the extent of leverage in the financial system” and that balance sheet strains could limit banks’ capacity to lend.