2008年4月11日 不识水性莫下海

航运业的繁荣造就了一批出人意料的“水手”，其中就包括私人股本公司。这是否将成为让它们为之懊悔的另一次旅程呢？

The shipping boom has created some unlikely sailors, private equity firms among them. Is this another journey they will come to rue?

在近些年，投资于船舶的理由似乎是无懈可击。去年，中国船舶工业集团(China State Shipbuilding)等船舶制造商的净利润上升逾一倍。股价尽管最近走低，也还是相当不错。韩国的韩进重工(Hanjin Heavy Industries)及船东/营运商太平洋航运(Pacific Basin)的股票在过去12个月中上涨至少40%。中国及印度的快速工业化导致两国对原材料及相关运输工具出现强劲需求。但历史显示，工业化总是一个“福兮祸所倚”的过程，因为各国会迅速开始制造自己的船只。日本造船业的大肆扩张导致这个市场在上世纪70年代崩盘；韩国紧随其后。现在，中国的造船厂迅速崛起，控制了全球订单量的40%。

The case for investing in ships looked watertight in recent years. Annual net profits at manufacturers such as China State Shipbuilding more than doubled last year. Share prices, in spite of the recent softening, tell a similar tale. Korea’s Hanjin Heavy Industries and owner/operator Pacific Basin are up at least 40 per cent in the past 12 months. The rapid industrialisation of China and India has led to buoyant demand for raw materials – and the wherewithal to transport them. But history shows that industrialisation is a blessing followed by a curse, since countries quickly start building their own ships. Witness Japan, whose splurge on ship-building contributed to the market collapse in the 1970s, and South Korea shortly thereafter. Now Chinese yards have shot from nowhere to command 40 per cent of the global order book.

因此，巨大的供给正在流向市场：以最普通的散货船为例，未来4年的订单只占现有产能的35%。最近几年，供应增长远低于需求增长，推动全球航运价格指标——波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Freight Index)在去年翻了一番。今年的情况似乎并不太妙。考虑到美国经济减缓的影响，需求增长将无法与2007年匹敌。在供应方面，看好航运业的人士反驳称，承接订单与实际交付量之间将存在较大的差距。船东正在发现，自己比以前更难得到贷款；船舶发动机供应紧张；一些较小的中国船厂将可能不得不关张大吉。但这个“自然淘汰”只是将痛楚延迟而已。可以马上启航的二手船相比于新船订单一直存在着很高的溢价，但坊间有迹象显示，二手船价格正在下滑。海运业务的金融投资者可能会有些晕船。

As a result, massive supply is coming on stream: the order book for the next four years in the most common bulk carrier segment represents 35 per cent of existing capacity. In recent years, supply growth has been dwarfed by demand, fuelling last year’s doubling in the Baltic Dry freight index (the global price of cargo space). Dynamics do not look so sweet this year. Demand growth is unlikely to match 2007, given the US slowdown. On supply, shipping bulls counter that there will be sizeable slippage between orders promised and actual delivery. Ship owners are finding it tougher to get credit; marine engines are in short supply; and some of the smaller Chinese yards will likely have to shut up shop. But this ‘natural culling’ simply defers the pain. Second-hand boats, available to sail immediately, have commanded a steep premium to orders placed for new ones, but anecdotal evidence suggests that prices are tapering off. Seaborne financial investors could be in for a bout of seasickness.